人民币汇率变动对企业投资的影响:资产负债表效应再研究  

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Business Investment:Revisiting the Balance-Sheet Effect

作　　者：王瑶 张礼卿[2] 王雅琦[2] Wang Yao;Zhang Liqing;Wang Yaqi

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所、国家金融与发展实验室 [2]中央财经大学金融学院、国际金融研究中心,北京市102206

出　　处：《世界经济》2025年第2期109-137,共29页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72273164);国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD101);中国社会科学院博士后创新项目“汇率变动与离岸证券发行”的资助。

摘　　要：本文分析表明,本币贬值(升值)对企业投资产生负向(正向)资产负债表效应,且该效应随企业违约可能性和全球流动资金充裕度的变化而变化。同时,人民币汇率变动通过外部融资和现金持有两个机制影响企业投资。本文使用中国非金融上市企业的外币债券发行数据构建计量模型进行了经验分析。此外,人民币汇率变动的资产负债表效应对未持有外债的企业也会产生溢出效应。本文研究结论表明,中国需要重视评估人民币汇率变动通过跨境资本流动对投资产生的影响。In recent years, the scale of foreign-currency bond issuance in China has significantly expanded, and it has become a key driving force of foreign debt growth in emerging markets. With the advancement of the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate, Chinese firms' foreign debt risk and its impact on macroeconomic stability deserve special attention. Studying the effects of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the balance sheets of firms issuing foreign-currency bonds and exploring the specific mechanisms involved is of paramount importance to fully understand the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the macroeconomy.Using data on foreign-currency bond issuance and financial information of Chinese non-financial firms from between 2000 and 2020, this study conducts a theoretical and empirical analysis on the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on Chinese business investment decisions from a balancesheet perspective. The study draws the following conclusions. First, RMB depreciation negatively affects Chinese business investment, while RMB appreciation has a positive impact. Second, the balance-sheet effects of exchange rate fluctuations are heterogeneous. The adverse effects of RMB depreciation-and the favourable effects of appreciation-on investment are more pronounced among firms with a higher risk of default, particularly during periods of low global liquidity. Third, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on business investment primarily operates through external financing and cash-holding mechanisms. Finally, the balance-sheet effects of exchange rate fluctuations not only influence firms that issue foreign-currency bonds but also spill over to impact the investment decisions of other firms within the same industry and its supply chain.The study examines how RMB exchange rate fluctuations influence the investment decisions of Chinese firms through balance-sheet effects, thereby enriching the existing literature on the relationship between exchange rates and investment. Previous work has large

关 键 词：汇率变动 资产负债表效应 企业投资 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F275