济南长清张夏杏花始花期预报方法初探  

Preliminary Study on Forecasting Method of Flowering Date of Zhangxia Apricot in Changqing of Ji’nan

作　　者：王金霞[1] 付晋[1] 夏一楠 WANG Jinxia;FU Jin;XIA Yi’nan(Ji’nan Meteorological Bureau,Ji’nan Shandong 250000,China)

机构地区：[1]济南市气象局,山东济南250000

出　　处：《果树资源学报》2025年第2期45-49,共5页Journal of Fruit Resources

摘　　要：【目的】为了准确地预报杏花始花期,应用热量因子、光照因子中的日照时数对杏花始花期的预报方法进行了研究探索,为长清张夏游客赏花时间安排以及花期冻害管理提供科学依据。【方法】对济南长清张夏万亩杏园22年(2002年—2023年)的杏花始花期记录资料以及长清区国家气象观测站同时段逐日气象资料进行了分析,研究杏花始花期的预报方法。【结果】1)长清张夏22年(2002年—2023年)中,杏花始花期提前明显,每10年提前3~4 d,平均始花期为3月16日—17日,最早为3月8日,最晚为3月30日;2)分析热量因子及光照因子与始花期日序数的相关关系,发现均与杏花始花期日序数呈显著负相关;(3)利用积温、前期气温、积温结合日照时数作为预报因子,建立了预报方程。【结论】通过研究发现,采用积温法预报杏花始花期的预报准确率更高,可以在生产中应用。【Objective】In order to accurately predict the beginning flowering period of apricot,the prediction method of the beginning flowering period of apricot was studied and explored by using the sunshine hours in heat factors and light factors,so as to provide scientific basis for the arrangement of flower viewing time and the management of freezing injury during flowering period in Zhangxia,Changqing.【Methods】The record data of the first flowering period of apricot flowers in Zhangxia million mu apricot orchard in Changqing District of Jinan in 22 years(2002-2023)and the daily meteorological data of the national meteorological observation station in Changqing District were analyzed to study the prediction method of the first flowering period of apricot flowers.【Results】1)In the 22 years(2002-2023)of Zhangxia in Changqing,the beginning flowering period of apricot was obviously advanced,3-4 days in advance every 10 years.The average beginning flowering period was from March 16 to March 17,with the earliest on March 8 and the latest on March 30.2)The correlation between heat factor and light factor and the number of days at the beginning of flowering was analyzed,and it was found that they were significantly negatively correlated with the number of days at the beginning of flowering.3)Using accumulated temperature,early temperature,accumulated temperature combined with sunshine hours as predictors,the prediction equation was established.【Conclusion】In the test,it was found that the error was the smallest when the accumulated temperature was used to fit the prediction equation of the initial flowering period.

关 键 词：杏 始花期 积温 日照时数 预报 

分 类 号：S662.2[农业科学—果树学]