城乡一体化养老保障政策效果的动态评估与差异分析——基于经济区域和人口特征的实证研究  

Dynamic Evaluation and Differential Analysis of the Effects of Integrated Urban-rural Pension Security Policy--An Empirical Study Based on Economic Regions and Population Characteristics

作　　者：徐波霞 蔡力淳 卢现祥[1] XU Boxia;CAI Lichun;LU Xianxiang

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,武汉430073 [2]美国西密歇根大学经济学院,美国卡拉马祖49006

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2025年第2期95-110,共16页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下中国经济韧性的形成机理、动态评价与政策协同研究”(21&ZD072),项目负责人:卢现祥。

摘　　要：城乡一体化养老保障政策是我国实现社会保障公平与可持续发展的重要举措。基于经济区域和人口特征的异质性视角,本文构建动态双重差分模型,对城乡一体化养老保障政策的短期、中期和长期效果进行动态评估,分析不同区域和人群政策响应的差异性。研究发现:(1)城乡一体化养老保障政策显著提升了参保覆盖率,短期内效果较弱,中期达到峰值,长期保持稳定但边际效应有所减弱;(2)东部地区政策效果在中期显现迅速,且维持较高水平,中西部地区逐步改善,东北地区在长期阶段取得显著进展,区域差异表现出显著的动态特征;(3)本地居民的参保率在政策中期高于流动人口,但流动人口的政策响应具有明显的累积效应,中长期参保率显著提升。研究结果揭示了城乡一体化养老保障政策的实施成效及其差异性,建议通过加强区域财政支持、优化流动人口参保机制和动态调整养老金标准,进一步提升政策吸引力,推动养老保障体系的均等化与可持续发展。The integration of urban and rural pension security policies is an important measure for China to achieve social security equity and sustainable development.From the perspective of economic regions and population characteristics'heterogeneity,this paper constructs a dynamic difference-in-differences(DID)model to dynamically evaluate the short-term,medium-term,and long-term effects of the integrated urban-rural pension security policy,analyzing the differences in policy responses across regions and populations.The study finds that:(1)The integrated urban-rural pension security policy has significantly increased coverage rates,with weak effects in the short term,peaking in the medium term,and remaining stable in the long term,though with diminishing marginal effects.(2)The policy effects in the eastern region appear rapidly in the medium term and maintain a high level,while the central and western regions improve gradually.The northeastern region shows significant progress in the long term,with regional differences displaying significant dynamic characteristics.(3)The pension participation rate for local residents is higher than that for floating populations in the medium term,but the floating population shows a clear cumulative policy response,with a significant increase in participation rates in the medium and long term.The research findings reveal the effectiveness and disparities in the implementation of the integrated urban-rural pension security policy.It is recommended that government to further enhance the policy's attractiveness and promote the equalization and sustainability of the pension system by strengthening regional financial support,simplifying the enrollment mechanisms for the floating population,and dynamically adjusting pension standards.

关 键 词：城乡一体化养老保障 动态双重差分模型 政策效应 区域差异 群体异质性 

分 类 号：F842.0[经济管理—保险]