河南省非确定性土地利用优化规划研究  

Study on Uncertainty Land Use Optimization and Planning in Henan Province

作　　者：周科[1] ZHOU Ke(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450011,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学,河南郑州450011

出　　处：《郑州大学学报(工学版)》2025年第2期135-142,共8页Journal of Zhengzhou University(Engineering Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50579020)。

摘　　要：以土地利用适宜性为基础,研究了非确定性影响下土地利用优化格局。将地理信息系统(GIS)与区间概率规划(IPP)技术相结合,构建区间概率非确定性土地利用规划管理(IPP-LUPM)模型。首先,基于GIS数据,进行土地利用适宜性评价。其次,以不同类型土地利用最大面积和各类约束条件为输入,用IPP-LUPM模型优化土地利用面积,得出非确定性条件下土地利用优化方案和效益。以河南省为例,计算结果表明:当土地利用适宜性i=1,非确定性概率p=0.01水平时,土地利用效益为[4.78,5.55]万亿元;当i=1,p=0.5水平时,土地利用效益为[9.66,10.44]万亿元。适宜性条件越好,土地利用效益越高,但同时带来的生态环境风险也相应偏大。构建的模型方法可为解决非确定性条件下土地利用优化方案提供有效途径,对于土地利用格局和管理方案优化分析具有重要的参考价值。The land use pattern with uncertainty influences was deeply studied based on land use suitability.The geographic information system(GIS)and interval probability planning(IPP)technology was combined to build a land use planning management(IPP-LUPM)model.Firstly,land use suitability evaluation was carried out based on GIS data.Secondly,taking the maximum area of different land use types and the constraints as input,the IPP-LUPM model was used to optimize land use area and to obtain land use optimum schemes with uncertainties.Taking Henan Province as an example,it was shown by the study results that when the land use suitability i=1,uncertainty probability p=0.01 level,[4.78,5.55]trillion Yuan could be obtained for the land use benefit,when i=1,p=0.5,[9.66,10.44]trillion Yuan could be obtained for the land use benefit.The greater the suitability level,the higher the land proposed benefit could be,and the greater the ecological environmental risks would be.It was shown by the results that the model could provide an effective way to solve the land use optimization under uncertainty conditions.It was of important reference value to optimize the land use pattern and management scheme.

关 键 词：土地利用 非确定性 适宜性评价 区间概率模型 规划管理 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]