我国青少年体育高质量发展的政策扩散模式与优化策略——基于2012—2022年政策文献的量化分析  

Research on the Policy Diffusion Model and Optimization Strategies for High-quality Development of Youth Sports in China:A Quantitative Analysis Based on 2012—2022 Policy Literature

作　　者：汪焱[1] 王凯珍[2] 王涛 向祖兵 WANG Yan;WANG Kaizhen;WANG Tao;XIANG Zubing(Institute of Physical Education,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,Fujian China;Capital University of Physical Education and Sports,Beijing 100191,China;College of Sports Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350108,Fujian China;School of Physical Education,Chongqing University,Chongqing 401331,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学体育教学研究部,福建福州350108 [2]首都体育学院,北京100191 [3]福建师范大学体育科学学院,福建福州350108 [4]重庆大学体育学院,重庆401331

出　　处：《北京体育大学学报》2024年第11期38-50,共13页Journal of Beijing Sport University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新发展阶段体育社会组织参与学校课外体育的治理机制研究”(项目编号:22XTY009)。

摘　　要：政策是加强青少年工作,促进体育强国建设的重要手段。基于扩散计量方法对新时代期间(2012—2022年)各级政府颁布的467份青少年体育政策的扩散过程进行研判。发现:青少年体育政策垂直影响和层级效应明显,扩散模式有自上而下、同级扩散和跟进扩散3种,扩散曲线呈“S”型和“R”型,扩散机制以强制、学习和模仿机制为主。与方案/计划/规划类和意见类政策相比,纲要类政策具有最高的扩散强度、扩散广度与扩散速度。基于研究结果,建议:1)细化政策的落实情况,将实施效果评价放在重要位置。2)优化政策工具使用结构,发挥政策工具的组合运用效果。3)强化政策激励机制,增强青少年体育发展的内生动力。4)深化政策协同程度,提高政策叠加效应。5)规划政策垂直扩散的最短路径,提升政策扩散广度与强度,切实保障青少年体育的高质量发展。Policy serves as a pivotal means to strengthen youth initiatives and advance the construction of a leading sports nation.Based on the diffusion econometric method,this study examines the diffusion process of 467 youth sports policies issued by governments at all levels during the new era(2012—2022).It is found that the vertical and hierarchical effects of youth sports policies are evident,with three diffusion modes:top-down,lateral(or parallel)diffusion and subsequent(or following)diffusion.The diffusion curves exhibit“S”-shaped and“R”-shaped patterns,and the diffusion mechanisms are primarily driven by enforcement,learning,and imitation.Compared with program/plan/planning and opinion policies,outline policies have the highest diffusion intensity,breadth and speed.Based on the research findings,the following suggestions are proposed:1)Refine policy implementation details and prioritize the evaluation of their effects.2)Optimize the structure of policy tool utilization and leverage the combined effects of various policy tools.3)Strengthen policy incentive mechanisms to enhance the endogenous driving force for the development of youth sports.4)Deepen the degree of policy synergy to enhance the cumulative effect of policies.5)Plan the shortest path for vertical policy diffusion to enhance the breadth and intensity of policy diffusion,thereby ensuring high-quality development of youth sports.

关 键 词：青少年体育 政策扩散 政策属性 政策类型 优化策略 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]