“21.7”河南极端暴雨背景下暴雨形成机理及预报方法研究  

作　　者：陈斌昌 

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院洛阳分院,河南洛阳471000

出　　处：《科技创新与应用》2025年第6期85-88,93,共5页Technology Innovation and Application

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目-青年基金(QJ2022-118)。

摘　　要：该文利用多源气象资料,对2021年“21.7”河南极端暴雨过程进行诊断分析。结果表明,中、低纬度区域内的多尺度系统诸如副热带高压、大陆高压系统以及热带气旋(台风)、低涡、低空急流的异常分布并叠加特殊地形作用,是此次极端暴雨的有利环境背景场;水汽通量散度等物理参数对预测暴雨具有显著指示价值;高值水汽通量散度区与辐合中心叠加区域和实际暴雨落区位置之间存在紧密关联,其演变模式能够为暴雨发展过程及落区预报提供重要的参考依据;上下层大气配置形成的抽吸效应对于促进水汽、热量及动量的输送至关重要,同样制约着暴雨系统的发展;假相当位温的垂直分布可用于评估大气不稳定性,低层能量锋区的出现预示着有利于暴雨条件的形成;对流层深厚的湿层、暖云层和不稳定层,以及异常低的LCL,是此次暴雨过程中出现极端雨强的主要因素。This paper uses multi-source meteorological data to conduct a diagnostic analysis of the"21.7"extreme heavy rain process in Henan in 2021.The results showed that,the abnormal distribution of multi-scale systems in the middle and low latitudes,such as the subtropical high pressure,the continental high pressure system,and tropical cyclones(typhoons),low vortices,and low-level jet jets,superimposed with special topography,are favorable environmental background fields for this extreme heavy rain;Physical parameters such as water vapor flux divergence have significant indicative value for predicting heavy rain;The divergence area of high-value water vapor flux is closely related to the superposition area of convergence centers and the actual location of heavy rain landing areas.Its evolution model can provide important reference for the development process of heavy rain and the prediction of falling areas;the pumping effect formed by the upper and lower atmospheric configurations is crucial to promoting the transport of water vapor,heat and momentum,and also restricts the development of heavy rain systems;The vertical distribution of pseudo-equivalent potential temperature can be used to assess atmospheric instability.The appearance of low-level energy fronts indicates favorable for the formation of heavy rain conditions;the deep wet layer,warm cloud layers and unstable layers in the troposphere,and abnormally low LCL are the main factors leading to extreme rain intensity during this heavy rain.

关 键 词：极端暴雨 低空急流 物理量 暖云层 LCL 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]