不同气候情景下三种槐树在中国的潜在分布  

Predicting potential distributions of three locust trees in China under different climate scenarios

作　　者：韩顺鑫 余婷 金正 邓锐 阳蕊灿 陶建平[1] 罗唯学 HAN Shunxin;YU Ting;JIN Zheng;DENG Rui;YANG Ruican;TAO Jianping;LUO Weixue(Key laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region,School of Life Sciences,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室,西南大学生命科学学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《生态学报》2025年第4期1775-1787,共13页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目(32201312);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(SWU-KQ22009)。

摘　　要：豆科槐树植物在防风固沙,改良土壤和防止水土流失方面发挥着重要作用,是重要的生态树种。全球气候变化正深刻影响植物的生长状态和地理分布,预测槐树植物的潜在适宜生境有助于深入了解气候变化对槐树植物地理分布格局的影响,对制定保护槐树类植物的科学保护策略至关重要。采用优化MaxEnt模型预测刺槐、短绒槐和槐在当前和未来2070年四种气候情景下(SSP1_2.6,SSP2_4.5,SSP3_7.0和SSP5_8.5)在中国的潜在适宜分布,确定影响三种槐树地理分布的主导环境因子,并使用ArcGIS绘制三种槐树的高精度空间分布图。结果表明:(1)温度和降水是影响三种槐树地理分布的主要因素,其中短绒槐和槐对最干季度均温响应最敏感,而等温性是影响刺槐潜在分布的最重要因子;(2)在当前气候条件下,槐的潜在分布区面积最为广阔共346.49万km^(2),刺槐的潜在分布区面积次之,为252.4万km^(2),而短绒槐的潜在分布区面积最为狭小共77.71万km^(2);(3)在未来不同气候情景下,三种槐树的潜在分布区都有不同程度的扩张,并且主要向更高纬度地区扩张。与当前气候相比,刺槐在未来气候下的潜在分布区主要呈现向东北、华北地区扩张的趋势,短绒槐主要向华北地区、西南地区西部、东北地区北部扩张,槐主要向东北、华北、西北地区扩张。绘制了在当前和未来气候情景下三种槐树在中国的潜在适宜分布地图,揭示了三种植物在中国的生境差异,为槐树的种质资源管理和生境保护提供了重要的科学依据。The Fabaceae locust plants are significant ecological tree species which play a crucial role in windbreaks,sand fixation,soil improvement,and prevention of soil erosion.Global climate change has been profoundly affecting the growth status and geographical distribution of plants,and predicting the potential suitable habitat of locust plants is helpful to understand the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution pattern of locust plants,and is very important for formulating scientific conservation strategies for locust plants.In order to identify the dominant environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of three locust trees,and to map the spatial distribution of three locust trees with high precision using ArcGIS,the optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the effects of Robinia pseudoacacia,Sophora velutina,and Styphnolobium japonicum under current and future climate scenarios(SSP1_2.6;SSP2_4.5,SSP3_7.0,SSP5_8.5)for the 2070s in China.The results indicated that:(1)temperature and precipitation were the dominant factors influencing the geographical distribution of the three locusts,with S.velutina and S.japonicum being the most sensitive to the mean temperature of driest quarter,while isothermality being the most important variable in determining the potential distribution of R.pseudoacacia.(2)Under current climate conditions,S.japonicum had the widest range of potential suitable areas,with a total area of 346.49×10^(4) km^(2),R.pseudoacacia had the second largest potential distribution area of 252.4×10^(4) km^(2),while S.velutina had the narrowest range of potential suitable areas,with a total area of 77.71×10^(4) km^(2);(3)Under different future climate scenarios,the potential suitable zones of all three species exhibited different degrees of expansion,and mainly toward higher latitudes.In comparison to the current climate,the potential distribution area of R.pseudoacacia in future climate scenarios exhibited a trend of expansion to northeast China and North China.The S.velu

关 键 词：槐树 MaxEnt模型 模型优化 气候变化 潜在分布 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]