中国农业国际循环格局演变及影响因素研究——基于供需结构与网络关系的双重视角  

Research on the Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of China’s Agricultural International Circulation——A Dual Perspective of Supply and Demand Structure and Network Relationships

作　　者：刘洋 雷俐 李科翰 LIU Yang;LEI Li LI Kehan

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学经济金融学院,重庆400054 [2]重庆工商大学经济学院,重庆400067 [3]澳门科技大学商学院,中国澳门999078

出　　处：《世界农业》2025年第3期16-28,共13页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“分工视角下RCEP对亚太区域价值链重塑的影响机制研究”(22CJL021);重庆市社会科学规划项目“新发展格局下重庆参与‘双循环’的测度及优化路径研究”(2023BS030)。

摘　　要：在加快构建“双循环”新发展格局背景下,实现更高水平国际循环是推动中国农业高质量发展的必要举措。本文基于2000—2020年亚开行多区域投入产出表(ADB-MRIO),从供需结构与网络关系的双重视角考察中国农业国际循环的格局演变,并运用基于随机行动者的网络动力学模型(SAOM)进一步揭示农业国际循环格局演变的影响因素。结果表明:从供需结构视角来看,加入世贸组织以来,中国农业国际循环的占比稳定在20%以下,对国际循环的依赖程度较低;从网络关系视角来看,中国农业国际循环的贸易伙伴关系具有相对稳定性,网络地位已位居世界前列,但贸易伙伴关系的质量还有较大提升空间;从影响因素来看,关系成本效应、分工传递效应、城镇化水平、居民消费水平、农业产出能力和汇率水平是影响农业国际循环格局的重要因素。据此,本文提出从供需两侧来动态优化农业国际循环的占比,提升农业贸易伙伴关系的“质量”,抓住RCEP战略机遇深化国际分工与贸易合作,促进农业国际循环的畅通和高质量发展。Under the background of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern of“double circulation”,achieving a higher level of international circulation is a necessary measure to promote the high-qua-lity development of China’s agricultural.This paper examines the evolution of China’s agricultural international circulation pattern from the perspectives of supply and demand structure and network relationships,based on the multi-regional input-output table(ADB-MRIO)for 2000-2020,and further explores the influencing factors of the pattern evolution using a stochastic actor-based network dynamics model(SAOM).The results show that:from the perspective of supply and demand structure,the proportion of China’s agricultural international circulation has been stable at less than 20%since joining the WTO,and its dependence on international circulation is relatively low;from the perspective of network relationships,China’s agricultural international circulation has a relatively stable trade partner relationship,and its network status has ranked among the world’s leading countries,but there is still considerable room for improvement in the quality of trade partner relationships;from the perspective of influencing factors,the relationship cost effect,division of labor transmission effect,urbanization level,residents’consumption level,agricultural output capacity,and exchange rate level are important factors affecting the pattern of agricultural international circulation.Therefore,this paper proposes to dynamically optimize the proportion of international agricultural circulation from both sides of supply and demand,improve the“quality”of agricultural trade partnership,seize the strategic opportunity of RCEP to deepen international division of labor and trade cooperation,and promote the smooth and high-quality development of international agricultural circulation.

关 键 词：农业 国际循环 格局演变 供需结构 网络关系 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]