农业补贴会诱发农户生产性投资增加吗?——基于中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)的实证检验  

Do Agricultural Subsidies Induce an Increase in Productive Investment of Farmers?——An Empirical Test based on CHFS Data

作　　者：杨福霞 代小芳 陈博文 YANG Fuxia;DAI Xiaofang;CHEN Bowen

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《世界农业》2025年第3期55-68,共14页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“面向农田面源污染源头控制技术的农业绿色补贴标准及其动态优化研究”(72274073)。

摘　　要：充分发挥农业补贴对经营主体生产积极性的激励作用是增加农民收入与保障粮食安全的关键。本文在对农业补贴影响农户生产性投资的内在过程进行理论刻画的基础上,运用中国4845个家庭的微观数据,实证考察了农业补贴对农户生产性投资的影响效果及其作用路径。研究发现,农业补贴的实施确实诱发农户增加生产性投资;经过内生性处理和一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。但这一诱导效应存在一定的异质性,具体表现为其在粮食主产区、农业受灾率较低的地区更为显著,且在兼业化程度较低、纯粮食种植户中的作用更强。机制分析表明,上述激励作用主要通过缓解农户资金约束和扩大农户经营规模两种途径实现。这一研究结论为2015年之后农业补贴结构的改革提供了理论支撑,也为未来考虑区域禀赋与农户特征的异质性政策精准制定提供方向指引。Giving full play to the incentive effect of agricultural subsidies on the production enthusiasm of business entities is the key to increasing farmers’income and guaranteeing food security.Based on the theoretical description of the internal process of agricultural subsidies affecting the productive investment of farmers,this paper empirically examines the effects of agricultural subsidies on the productive investment of farmers and its action paths by using the micro-data of 4845 households in China.The result shows that the implementation of agricultural subsidies does induce farm households to increase their productive investment,and this conclusion is still valid after endogeneity treatment and a series of robustness tests.However,there is some heterogeneity in the induced effect,which is more significant in the main grain-producing areas and the areas with low agricultural disaster rate,and more powerful in farmers with low degree of part-time employment and only grain farming.Mechanism analysis shows that the above incentive effect is mainly achieved through relieving farmers’capital constraints and expanding farmers’business scale.This finding provides theoretical support for the reform of the agricultural subsidy structure after 2015,as well as guidance for the precise formulation of heterogeneous policies that take into account regional endowments and farmers'characteristics in the future.

关 键 词：农业补贴 农户生产性投资 诱导效应 

分 类 号：F812.8[经济管理—财政学] F323