电商进村能否减少农村劳动力外出务工?——基于电子商务进农村综合示范政策的准自然试验  

Can E-commerce in Villages Reduce Rural Labor Migration?——A Quasi-Natural Experiment Analysis based on the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Policy

作　　者：夏涌 肖小勇[1] 陈娴 项朝阳[1] XIA Yong;XIAO Xiaoyong;CHEN Xian;XIANG Zhaoyang

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《世界农业》2025年第3期106-118,共13页World Agriculture

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目“鲜活农产品社区团购的模式、效率及优化政策研究”(21YJA790063);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“电商进村与农户消费:效应及其不平等”(2662022JGYJ006)。

摘　　要：留住农村劳动力对于乡村振兴具有至关重要的作用,电子商务在农村地区的发展为留住农村劳动力提供了新的途径。本文以电子商务进农村综合示范政策为准自然试验,基于2012—2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),采用渐进双重差分法考察了电商进村对农村劳动力外出务工的影响及其机制。结果表明:①电商进村使农村劳动力外出务工的概率显著降低了约1.4%,在进行多种稳健性检验后,这一结论依旧成立。②机制分析表明,电商进村主要通过缩小城乡收入差距、促进农村劳动力从事农业工作、改善农村生活质量3个途径减少农村劳动力外出务工。③异质性分析表明,在务工地域层面,电商进村主要减少了农村劳动力县外外出务工,对县内外出务工的影响较小;在资源禀赋层面,电商进村主要减少了受教育程度较高和家庭净资产较高的农村劳动力外出务工,对受教育程度较低和家庭净资产较低的农村劳动力的影响较小。Retaining rural labor is crucial for rural revitalization.The development of e-commerce in rural areas provides a new avenue for keeping local rural labor.Using the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Policy as a quasi-natural experiment,this study examines the impact of e-commerce in villages on rural labor migration based on data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2012 to 2020.Employing a generalized difference-in-differences,the results show that:①E-commerce in villages significantly reduces the probability of rural labor migration by approximately 1.4%.This conclusion remains robust after various tests.②Mechanism analysis indicates that e-commerce in villages reduces rural labor migration primarily through narrowing the urban-rural income gap,promoting agricultural employment among rural labor,and improving rural living quality.③Heterogeneity analysis reveals that,in terms of migration regions,e-commerce in villages mainly reduces rural labor migration outside the county,with a smaller impact on migration within the county.In terms of resource endowment,e-commerce in villages primarily reduces migration among rural labor with higher education levels and higher household net assets,with a smaller impact on those with lower education levels and lower household net assets.

关 键 词：农村电子商务 外出务工 渐进双重差分法 乡村振兴 城乡收入差距 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济] F323.6F249.2