农业产业园区建设能提升粮食生产韧性吗?——基于国家现代农业示范区的准自然实验  

Can Agricultural Industrial Park Construction Enhance the Resilience of the Grain Production?——Based on the Quasi-Natural Experiment of National Modern Agricultural Demonstration Zones

作　　者：祝金欣 朱再清[1] 张冰洁 ZHU Jinxin;ZHU Zaiqing;ZHANG Bingjie

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《世界农业》2025年第3期119-131,共13页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术体系(油菜)建设专项(CARS.13)。

摘　　要：本文基于2006—2021年1565个县域的面板数据,以国家现代农业示范区政策为例,实证考察农业产业园区建设对粮食生产韧性的影响。研究发现,国家现代农业示范区的设立有助于提高粮食生产韧性,经过一系列稳健性检验,结论仍然成立。国家现代农业示范区设立通过提高农业机械化水平、农业劳动生产率、特色农业产业发展水平进而增强粮食生产韧性。研究还发现,示范区设立对粮食生产韧性的影响效应主要体现在东部和西部地区;并且相比于粮食主产区,对非粮食主产区的促进作用更强。Based on panel data from 1565 counties spanning the period from 2006 to 2021,this paper empirically investigates the impact of agricultural industrial park construction on the resilience of grain production,taking the National Modern Agriculture Demonstration Zone policy as an example.The findings reveal that the establishment of the National Modern Agriculture Demonstration Zones contributes to enhancing the resilience of grain production,and this conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests.The establishment of these zones enhances grain production resilience by improving agricultural mechanization levels,agricultural labor productivity,and the development of specialty agriculture industries.Furthermore,the study discovers that the impact of establishing these demonstration zones on grain production resilience is primarily evident in the eastern and western regions,and the promotional effect is stronger in non-major grain-producing areas compared to major grain-producing areas.This research provides valuable insights for the transformation and upgrading of China’s grain system and the realization of agricultural modernization.

关 键 词：县域粮食生产韧性 农业现代化 国家现代农业示范区 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]