深部地质封存技术应用泄漏风险概率评估  

Assessment of Leakage Risk Probability of Deep Geological Storage Technology

作　　者：陶盛 杜松 杨桔材[3] 张啸 梁昌鸿 刘建国[3] 宋思彤 TAO Sheng;DU Song;YANG Jucai;ZHANG Xiao;LIANG Changhong;LIU Jianguo;SONG Sitong(General Prospecting Institute,CNACG,Beijing 100039;Key Laboratory of Transparent Mine Geology and Digital Twin Technology,National Mine Safety Administration,Beijing 100039;Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region 010051;Guangdong Coal Geology Bureau Exploration Institute,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510440)

机构地区：[1]中国煤炭地质总局勘查研究总院,北京100039 [2]矿山透明地质与数字孪生技术国家矿山安监局重点实验室,北京100039 [3]内蒙古工业大学,内蒙古自治区呼和浩特010051 [4]广东煤炭地质局勘查院,广东广州510440

出　　处：《中国煤炭地质》2025年第1期62-68,共7页Coal Geology of China

基　　金：2023年内蒙古自治区研究生科研创新项目(S20231134Z);鄂尔多斯市创新团队项目(TD20232305);陕西省创新能力支撑计划(2024RS-CXTD-54)。

摘　　要：深部地质封存技术是一种可用于石油、天然气和煤炭等工业领域且国际上公认的安全的地质环境学终端处置技术。近年来我国在煤矿矿井水防治领域开展一系列示范,采用深部地质封存技术可有效解决煤层顶板水防治及高盐水终端处置的瓶颈难题。但深部地质封存技术的安全稳定性及风险可控性仍缺乏相关研究。本文通过搜集、筛选、整理国内外深部地质封存技术运营的事故统计资料,采用事件树分析法,识别可能导致被封存流体泄漏的事件,同时统计事件的概率,对可能造成注入深部流体泄漏的事件进行量化及科学性分析。结果表明深部地质封存技术发生泄漏的概率风险值小于10^(-6),在社会风险值可接受范围内,具有一定的安全性和可靠性。The deep well injection and storage is an internationally recognized safe geological environmental terminal disposal technology that can be used in many fields such as oil,gas and coal.In recent years,China has carried out a series of demonstrations in prevention and treatment of mine wastewater.The technology of deep well injection and storage can effectively solve the bottleneck problem of coal seam roof water treatment and high-saline wastewater terminal disposal.However,there is still a lack of relevant research on its security stability and risk controllability.After collecting,screening and sorting out accident statistical data from operated deep injected well at home and abroad,event tree analysis method is used to identify the sequence of events that may lead to the leakage of injected mine wastewater,and evaluates the probability of these events,so as to conduct scientific analysis and quantification of the events that may cause the leakage of injected deep mine wastewater.The results show that the probability risk value of injected mine wastewater leakage is less than 10^(-6),Within the acceptable range of social risk value,it has a certain safety and reliability.

关 键 词：深部地质封存 矿井水 事件树 风险评估 

分 类 号：X752[环境科学与工程—环境工程]