彭州市1991—2020年气候变化事实及未来气候变化趋势  

Climate change facts in Pengzhou from 1991 to 2020 and future climate change trends

作　　者：叶瑶 宋雯雯 刘自牧 刘新超 Ye Yao;Song Wenwen;Liu Zimu;Liu Xinchao(Sichuan Meteorological Service Center,Chengdu 610072)

机构地区：[1]四川省气象服务中心,成都610072

出　　处：《气象水文海洋仪器》2025年第1期91-94,99,共5页Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments

基　　金：高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室青年专项(SCQXKJQN202219);四川省气象服务中心创新团队(CXTD202303)资助。

摘　　要：利用1991—2020年逐日气象观测资料,对彭州市气温、降水、湿度等气候要素的变化情况进行分析,通过RegCM6区域气候模式揭示彭州市未来气候的发展趋势。结果表明:1991—2020年,彭州市气温呈上升趋势,高温日数显著增加,年降水量呈显著增多趋势,年降水日数显著减少,年平均相对湿度显著下降;未来彭州气温将会持续上升,极端高温降低,极端低温上升;各季和年降水的变化都有明显的年代际波动,年降水量和夏季降水以增加为主;各季和年相对湿度都呈明显的下降趋势。The changes in climate factors such as temperature,precipitation,and humidity in Pengzhou City were analyzed using daily meteorological observation data from 1991 to 2020.Revealing the future climate development trend of Pengzhou City through RegCM6 regional climate model.The results showed that from 1991 to 2020,the temperature in Pengzhou City showed an upward trend,with a significant increase in the number of hot days and a significant increase in annual precipitation.The number of rainy days and average relative humidity decreased significantly.In the future,the temperature in Pengzhou will continue to rise,with extreme high temperatures decreasing and extreme low temperatures increasing.There are significant inter decadal fluctuations in precipitation across seasons and years,with annual and summer precipitation mainly increasing.The relative humidity of each season and year shows a significant downward trend.

关 键 词：气候变化 平均气温 降水量 气候变化趋势 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]