2022年夏季重要天气预告图检验评估  

Verification and Evaluation of Significant Weather Forecasts in Summer of 2022

作　　者：赵晨阳 梁升[1] 张伟[1] Zhao Chenyang;Liang Sheng;Zhang Wei(Aviation Meteorological Center of ATC Brueau,CAAC,Beijing 100122 China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空局空中交通管理局航空气象中心,北京100122

出　　处：《中国民航飞行学院学报》2025年第2期50-55,共6页Journal of Civil Aviation Flight University of China

摘　　要：为进一步提高民航局空管局气象中心(以下简称北京)制作发布的重要天气预告图产品准确性,对北京发布的重要天气预告图与世界区域预报系统(WorldAreaForecast System,WAFS)伦敦及华盛顿中心下发的重要天气预告图的预报能力进行检验评估,主要检验积雨云及颠簸两个预报要素的准确性。通过比较积雨云覆盖率、空报率、命中率、TS评分(threat score)及颠簸预报命中率,可以发现北京发布的重要天气预告图积雨云预报结果优于WAFS伦敦及华盛顿产品,WAFS华盛顿产品略优于伦敦产品;颠簸预报命中率略低于WAFS伦敦及华盛顿产品,但伦敦产品颠簸预报落区明显较实况偏大。In order to further improve the accuracy of Significant Weather Forecasts produced and released by the Aviation Meteorological Center(hereinafter referred to as Beijing),the forecast ability of Significant Weather Forecasts released by Beijing,London and Washington centers of WAFS(World Area Forecast System)is tested and evaluated,mainly to test the accuracy of the two forecast elements of cumulonimbus and turbulence.By comparing the cumulonimbus coverage,false alarm rate,hit rate,TS score and turbulence forecast hit rate,it can be found that the cumulonimbus forecast results of Significant Weather Forecasts released by Beijing are better than those of WAFS London and Washington products and WAFS Washington products are slightly better than London products.The hit rate of the turbulence forecast is slightly lower than that of WAFS London and Washington products,but the turbulence forecast area of the London product is significantly larger than that of the actual situation.

关 键 词：重要天气预告图 积雨云 颠簸 准确率 TS评分 

分 类 号：V321.2[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]