达古冰山地质公园生态地质环境承载力的评价和预测  

Evaluation and prediction of eco-geological environment carrying capacity of Dagu Iceberg Geopark

作　　者：王成武[1] 王云飞 文定清 汪宙峰[1] 靳鑫 黄仕海 WANG Chengwu;WANG Yunfei;WEN Dingqing;WANG Zhoufeng;JIN Xin;HUANG Shihai(School of Geoscience and Technology,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;Dagu Glacier Administration,Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture 623500,Sichuan Province,China;Guangxi Water&Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Nanning 530000,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学地球科学与技术学院,成都610500 [2]达古冰川管理局,四川阿坝藏族羌族自治州623500 [3]广西壮族自治区水利电力勘测设计研究院有限责任公司,南宁530000

出　　处：《天津师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期60-68,共9页Journal of Tianjin Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：四川省科技计划资助项目(2023YFS0406).

摘　　要：为了更好地保护和利用达古冰山的地质遗迹,实现达古冰山地质公园的可持续发展,利用层次分析法对达古冰山地质公园2011—2019年的生态地质环境承载力进行评价,并通过灰色预测模型对其2020—2030年的生态地质环境承载力进行预测.结果表明:2011—2019年,研究区生态地质环境承载力变化总体表现为先快速下降、后快速上升、再快速下降、最后小幅上升的W形变化特征.空间分布上整体表现为东南好、西南差的分布特征.2020—2030年预测期内,研究区的生态地质环境承载力由2020年的“二好一差”(北部和东南好,西南差)劣化为2030年的“一好三差”(北部较好,东南、西南和道路差).为提升达古冰山园区的生态地质环境承载力,建议对生态地质环境承载力劣化严重的区域采取提高植被覆盖度、调整游览步道、调控游客流量以及设置雨水导流渠等措施,以实现旅游发展与生态环境保护的协调共生.In order to better protect and utilize the geological relics of Dagu Iceberg and realize the sustainable development of Dagu Iceberg Geopark,the eco-geological environment carrying capacity of Dagu Iceberg Geopark from 2011 to 2019 was evaluated using the analytic hierarchy process,and its eco-geological environment carrying capacity from 2020 to 2030 was predicted through the grey prediction model.The results show that from 2011 to 2019,the change of eco-geological environ-mental carrying capacity of the studied area generally presents a W-shaped change characteristic of first rapid decline,then rapid increase,then rapid decline,and finally slight increase.The overall spatial distribution shows a distribution pattern of good in the southeast and poor in the southwest.During the forecast period of 2020—2030,the eco-geological environmental carrying capacity of the studied area will deteriorate from“two good and one bad”(good in the north and southeast,bad in the southwest)in 2020 to“one good and three bad”(good in the north,bad in the southeast,southwest and bad in the road)in 2030.In order to improve the eco-geological environment carrying capacity of Dagu Iceberg Park,it is suggested to take mea-sures such as increasing vegetation coverage,adjusting tourist trails,regulating tourist flow and setting rainwater diversion channels to achieve coordination between tourism development and ecological environment protection in the areas with severe deterioration of eco-geological environment carrying capacity.

关 键 词：达古冰山 地质遗迹 生态地质环境承载力 层次分析法 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：P951[天文地球—自然地理学]