气候变化对南昌地区建筑能耗的影响  

Impact of Climate Change on Building Energy Consumption in Nanchang

作　　者：敖宇强 AO Yuqiang(China Nerin Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国瑞林工程技术股份有限公司,江西南昌330038

出　　处：《有色冶金设计与研究》2025年第1期52-56,共5页Nonferrous Metals Engineering & Research

摘　　要：以南昌地区为例,基于1987—2016年逐时气象数据及IPCC A2排放情景,更新了新典型年,并预测了未来3个时间段下的典型气象年数据,分析了气候变化对建筑能耗的影响。通过对比原数据库数据、新典型年数据及未来气象数据,发现:月平均干球温度持续上升,1971—2100年间增速约为0.44℃/10年,且冬季温升略高于夏季;相对湿度下降,绝对湿度上升;夏季太阳辐射减弱,冬季波动较小。静态能耗分析表明,与数据库典型气象年相比,未来气候下制冷度小时数增幅显著,采暖度小时数下降,总能耗变化趋势不确定。动态能耗分析表明,对比数据库典型气象年,2080s下的总空调能耗增幅达84.43%,其中制冷能耗增量远超供暖能耗减少量。研究表明,气候变暖将显著增加南昌地区建筑空调总能耗,对今后的节能设计提出了更高的要求。Taking Nanchang area as an example,the paper updates new typical meteorological year and predicts the data for the next three time periods,and analyzes the impact of climate change on building energy consumption based on hourly meteorological data from 1987 to 2016 and IPCC A2 emission scenarios.By comparing the original database data,new typical year data and future meteorological data,it is found that:the monthly mean dry bulb temperature continues to rise,with a growth rate of about 0.44℃/decade from 1971 to 2100,and the temperature rise in winter is slightly higher than that in summer;relative humidity decreases,absolute humidity increases;solar radiation decreases in summer and fluctuates less in winter.The static energy consumption analysis shows that the total energy consumption of air conditioning will increase by 84.43%,with a significant increase in cooling degree hours(23.9%)and a decrease in heating degree hours(1.9%).Dynamic simulation shows a future increase in total air-conditioning energy consumption of per cent,with the incremental increase in cooling energy consumption far exceeding the decrease in heating energy consumption.It shows in the study that climate warming will significantly increase the total energy consumption of air conditioning in buildings in the Nanchang area,placing higher demands on energy-saving design.

关 键 词：典型气象年 建筑能耗 气候变化 动态能耗模拟 南昌地区 度小时法 

分 类 号：TU111.195[建筑科学—建筑理论] TU119