2024年国内外宏观经济形势回顾与2025年展望  

Domestic and International Macro-economic Situation:2024 Review and 2025 Prospect

作　　者：傅培瑜 张莹[1] 李霞 赵小辉 Fu Peiyu;Zhang Ying;Li Xia;Zhao Xiaohui(SINOPEC Economics&Development Research Institute Company Limited,China Petrochemical Consulting Company Limited,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,中国石化咨询有限责任公司,北京100029

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2025年第2期7-15,共9页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：回顾2024年,全球经济显示出较强韧性,增长稳定,通胀率正在逐步回归到目标区间范围内,全球经济基本实现软着陆。美国经济增长韧性较强,其他发达国家与美国的差距逐渐扩大;新兴经济体复苏步伐加快。我国尽管存在有效需求不足、房地产低迷、社会预期偏弱等问题,但在一系列政策支持下经济实现预期增长目标。展望2025年,主要经济体货币政策逐渐宽松,全球经济平稳增长,但上行动力不足;特朗普再次担任美国总统将对全球贸易及投资格局产生较大冲击,增加了全球经济发展不确定性及风险波动;科技创新革命将成为拉动世界经济潜在增长率的主要因素。中国经济将面临内需偏弱、贸易壁垒升级、房地产持续深度调整等诸多挑战,但政策效果持续释放和科技创新将有利于我国保持经济的稳定增长。Looking back at 2024,the global economy demonstrated strong resilience,with stable growth and inflation gradually returning to the target range,achieving a soft landing on the whole.The U.S.economy showed robust growth resilience,widening the gap with other developed countries;meanwhile,emerging economies accelerated their recovery pace.Despite issues such as insufficient effective demand,a sluggish real estate market,and weak social expectations in China,the economy achieved its expected growth targets with the support of a series of policies.Looking ahead to 2025,it is anticipated that monetary policies of major economies will gradually ease,and the global economy will grow steadily,albeit with insufficient upward momentum.The re-election of Donald Trump as U.S.President is expected to significantly impact global trade and investment patterns,increasing uncertainties and risk fluctuations in global economic development.The technological innovation revolution will become a major factor driving the potential growth rate of the world economy.China's economy will face challenges such as weak domestic demand,escalating trade barriers,and continued deep adjustments in the real estate sector.However,the ongoing release of policy effects and technological innovation will be conducive to maintaining stable economic growth in China.

关 键 词：全球经济 中国经济 2024年 2025年 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]