华北平原生境质量与景观格局时空演变及预测  

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Habitat Quality and Landscape Pattern in the North China Plain

作　　者：刘书雅 张安兵 王贺封 刘佳 吴健达 LIU Shuya;ZHANG Anbing;WANG Hefeng;LIU Jia;WU Jianda(School of Mining and Geomatics Engineering,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,Hebei,China;Key Laboratory of Natural Resources Spatial Information,Handan 056038,Hebei,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学矿业与测绘工程学院,河北邯郸056038 [2]邯郸市自然资源空间信息重点实验室,河北邯郸056038

出　　处：《西北林学院学报》2025年第2期236-250,共15页Journal of Northwest Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071246);河北省重大科技成果转换专项(22287401Z);河北省自然科学基金项目(E2020402006)。

摘　　要：探究华北平原生境质量时空演变并预测其未来变化,对该地区生态环境保护及其高质量发展具有重要意义。基于LUH2数据估算未来土地需求量,运用PLUS模型预测SSP119、SSP245、SSP585情景下华北平原2030年土地利用空间分布,利用InVEST模型和景观指数评估2000—2020年及2030年不同情景下华北平原生境质量与景观格局演变,并进一步揭示两者之间的关系。结果表明:1)华北平原2000—2020年耕地-建设用地、林地-耕地和草地-建设用地之间的转换,导致区域内景观格局趋于破碎化、多样化;不同情景下,各土地利用类型面积和空间分布具有差异性,致使景观格局指数变化程度不同,其中SSP585情景下景观破碎度高于SSP119、SSP245情景下。2)2000—2020年华北平原整体生境质量轻微下降;不同情景下生境质量均值分别为0.396(SSP119)、0.395(SSP245)、0.391(SSP585)。空间上,生境质量高和较高区主要分布于河北省北部林地和西部丘陵区及山东省中部和东部丘陵区,生境质量低和较低区主要分布于中部、南部耕作区及人口密集的城市区。3)生境质量与景观格局具有空间关联性,且与除IJI外的其余景观格局指数的相关性随时序逐渐减弱;不同情景下两者空间集聚性分异明显。综合来看,SSP119情景下生境质量退化得到缓解,SSP585情景下城市扩张加快,生态用地明显减少,生境质量退化显著。Exploring the spatio-temporal evolution of habitat quality in the North China Plain and predicting its future change are of great significance for the ecological environment protection and high-quality development of the region.In this paper,the future land demand was estimated based on LUH2 data.The PLUS model was used to predict the spatial distribution of the land use in the North China Plain in 2030 under the scenarios of SSP119,SSP245 and SSP585.InVEST model and landscape index were used to evaluate the evolution of habitat quality and landscape pattern in the North China Plain from 2000 to 2020 and 2030 under different scenarios,and the relationship between them was further revealed.The results showed that 1)The conversion between cultivated land and construction land,forest land and cultivated land,grassland and construction land in the North China Plain from 2000 to 2020 led to the fragmentation and diversification of the landscape pattern in the region.Under different scenarios,there were certain differences in the area and spatial distribution of land use types,resulting in varying degrees of landscape pattern index changes.Among them,the landscape fragmentation degree was higher in the SSP585 scenario than in the SSP119 and SSP245 scenarios.2)The overall habitat quality of the North China Plain declined slightly from 2000 to 2020.The values of average habitat quality under different scenarios were 0.396(SSP119),0.395(SSP245),and 0.391(SSP585),respectively.Areas with high and relatively high habitat quality in space were mainly distributed in the northern forest and western hilly areas of Hebei Province,as well as the central and eastern hilly areas of Shandong Province.Areas with low and relatively low habitat quality were mainly distributed in the central and southern cultivated areas and urban agglomerations with concentrated populations.3)There was a spatial correlation between habitat quality and landscape pattern,and the correlation between habitat quality and other landscape pattern indices excep

关 键 词：生境质量 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 SSP-RCP情景 景观格局 华北平原 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]