少数民族青年生育意愿的影响因素及稳定路径研究——基于贵州省88个区县的生育意愿调查  

A Study on the Influencing Factors and Stable Paths of Fertility Intention among Minority Youth——A Survey on Fertility Willingness based on 88 Districts and Counties in Guizhou Province

作　　者：周文 彭坤杰 Zhou Wen;Peng Kunjie(Institute of Population and Labor Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,China;School of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100010 [2]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《社会科学论坛》2025年第2期182-195,共14页Tribune of Social Sciences

基　　金：贵州省高校人文社会科学研究项目《贵州省生育状况及生育支持政策体系构建路径研究》阶段性成果,项目编号:2023GZGXRW149。

摘　　要：较低生育率是当前我国人口发展过程中迫切需要解决的问题,然而目前对少数民族人口生育的研究较为缺乏。基于贵州省的生育意愿调查数据,采用模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)方法,对我国少数民族人口生育意愿进行研究发现,贵州省青年群体的生育意愿已经处于较低水平,各少数民族青年的生育意愿与汉族青年呈现趋同趋势。收入水平、代际支持、生育成本、生育文化和受教育水平等都是影响贵州少数民族青年生育意愿的重要因素。稳定少数民族青年生育意愿的路径主要有“收入水平推动型”“生育文化推动型”“代际支持推动型”“宏观经济水平低+学历水平低+生育成本感知低共同推动型”四种路径。经济状况较差、受教育水平较低和对生育成本感知程度较低的少数民族青年生育意愿相对较高,但儿童养育水平可能难以提升,因此少数民族地区不仅需要生育支持政策,儿童养育支持政策也不可或缺。The lower fertility rate is an urgent problem that needs to be solved in the current population development process in China,but there is currently a lack of research on the fertility of ethnic minority populations.Based on the survey data of fertility intention in Guizhou province,the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)method was used to study the fertility intention of ethnic minority populations in China.Research has found that the fertility willingness of young people in Guizhou Province is already at a relatively low level,and the fertility willingness of ethnic minority youth is showing a trend of convergence with Han Chinese youth.Income level,intergenerational support,fertility costs,fertility culture,and education level are all important factors affecting the fertility willingness of ethnic minority youth in Guizhou.The main paths to stabilize minority youth include“income level driven”,“fertility culture driven”,“intergenerational support driven”,and“low macroeconomic level+low educational level+low perceived fertility cost driven”.Ethnic minority youth with poor economic conditions,lower education levels,and lower perception of fertility costs have relatively higher willingness to conceive,but their child rearing level may be difficult to improve.Therefore,ethnic minority areas not only require fertility support policies,but also indispensable child rearing support policies.

关 键 词：少数民族 生育意愿 人口负增长 模糊集定性分析 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]