变化环境下山西省典型流域径流演变及归因分析  

Runoff Evolution and Attribution of Typical Watersheds in Shanxi Province Under Changing Environment

作　　者：蔺彬彬[1] 祝雪萍[1] 张亚琼 庞小龙 郭维维 LIN Binbin;ZHU Xueping;ZHANG Yaqiong;PANG Xiaolong;GUO Weiwei(School of Water Science and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China;Shanxi Zhanghe Water Limited Company,Taiyuan 030024,China;Datong Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Station,Datong 037043,China)

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,山西太原030024 [2]山西漳河水务有限公司,山西太原030024 [3]大同市水文水资源勘测站,山西大同037043

出　　处：《人民黄河》2025年第3期30-36,41,共8页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52379018);山西省应用基础研究计划项目(20210302123120);山西省科技创新人才团队专项(202204051002027)。

摘　　要：气候变化和人类活动影响下,山西省境内大部分流域径流都发生了严重的衰减。以山西省内汾河、沁河、漳河、滹沱河4个典型流域为研究对象,分析了径流的演变特征,采用VIC模型对流域的水文过程进行模拟,在此基础上解析了气候变化和人类活动对径流衰减的贡献。结果表明:1956-2018年,典型流域年径流量都呈现显著的下降趋势,且都在1980年左右发生了突变;相比基准期(1960-1980年),1981-2000年汾河、沁河、漳河、滹沱河的年均径流量分别衰减了57.9%、49.1%、57.3%、37.6%,人类活动的贡献率分别为59.9%、54.3%、52.3%、49.0%;2001-2018年衰减量进一步增大,人类活动的贡献率分别增加为74.8%、73.1%、72.4%、57.7%;地表地下取用水、煤矿开采、水土保持措施等人类活动是径流衰减的主要驱动因素。Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the runoff of most rivers in Shanxi Province has been severely attenu⁃ated.Four typical watersheds in Shanxi province,including Fenhe,Qinhe,Zhanghe and Hutuo rivers,were taken as the research objects.The runoff evolution characteristics were analyzed.The hydrological processes were simulated by using the VIC model,based on which the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff attenuation were analyzed.The results show that the annual runoff of typical wa⁃tersheds shows a significant downward trend during 1956-2018,and all of which has an abrupt change around 1980.Compared with the base⁃line period(1960-1980),the average annual runoff(1981-2000)of Fenhe,Qinhe,Zhanghe and Hutuo rivers is decreased by 57.9%,49.1%,57.3%and 37.6%,and the contributions of human activities are 59.9%,54.3%,52.3%and 49.0%respectively.During 2001-2018,the attenuation is increased further,and the contribution of human activities increases to 74.8%,73.1%,72.4%and 57.7%respec⁃tively.Human activities such as surface and underground water extraction,coal mining,soil and water conservation measures and so on are the main driving factors of runoff attenuation.

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 径流衰减 VIC模型 归因分析 典型流域 山西省 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]