基于PSR框架的黄河流域中心城市洪涝韧性研究  

Research on Flood Resilience of Central Cities in the Yellow River Basin Based on PSR Framework

作　　者：任捷 王子航 梁学琴 王雅荣[1,2,3] REN Jie;WANG Zihang;LIANG Xueqin;WANG Yarong(School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University of Science&Technology,Baotou 014017,China;Industrial Informatization and Industrial Innovation Research Center,Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences,the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Baotou 014010,China;Yellow River“Jiziwan”Development Research Base,Key Research Base of Philosophy and Social Sciences in Inner Mongolia,Baotou 014010,China;Baotou Municipal Office Service Center,Baotou 014060,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学经济与管理学院,内蒙古包头014017 [2]内蒙古自治区高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地产业信息化与产业创新研究中心,内蒙古包头014010 [3]内蒙古哲学社会科学重点研究基地黄河“几字弯”发展研究基地,内蒙古包头014010 [4]包头市机关事务服务中心,内蒙古包头014060

出　　处：《人民黄河》2025年第3期62-68,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(72404153);内蒙古自治区高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地开放课题(KFSM-KDSK0208);内蒙古自治区社会科学基金2024年度高质量发展专项课题(2024EY22);内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务费项目(2024QNJS154)。

摘　　要：以黄河流域的25个中心城市为样本,基于PSR理论框架构建黄河流域城市洪涝韧性评价模型,对黄河流域中心城市洪涝韧性水平进行测算,并运用Jenks自然间断点法对城市洪涝韧性系统三维度指数进行时空演化分析。结果显示:1)2012-2020年黄河流域中心城市洪涝韧性水平整体保持上升的趋势;2)从城市洪涝韧性系统的三维度来看,各城市系统的压力刺激性指数呈现波动上升趋势,状态敏感性指数波动起伏现象比较明显,适应性指数整体呈现逐年上升趋势;3)城市洪涝韧性水平在空间上呈现不均匀分布,高洪涝韧性城市呈零星点状分布特征;4)城市洪涝韧性空间关联性主要呈现高-高集聚、低-低集聚和高-低集聚3种空间关联类型。Taking 25 central cities in the Yellow River Basin as samples,this paper built an evaluation model of urban flood resilience in the Yellow River Basin based on PSR theoretical framework,calculated the level of flood resilience in the central cities in the Yellow River Basin,and analyzed the spatial⁃temporal evolution of the three⁃dimensional index of urban flood system by using Jenks’natural discontinuity method.The results show that:a)During 2012-2020,the flood resilience of the central cities in the Yellow River Basin maintains an overall growth trend.b)From the perspective of three⁃dimensional degree of urban flood system,the pressure stimulation index of each urban system shows a fluctuating upward trend,the fluctuation of state sensitivity index is obvious,and the adaptability index of response dimension shows an upward trend year by year.c)The level of urban flood resilience is unevenly distributed in space,and the cities with high flood resilience are sporadically distributed.d)The spatial correlation degree of urban flood resilience mainly presents the three types of spatial correlation of H-H cluster,L-L cluster and H-L cluster.

关 键 词：PSR模型 中心城市 城市洪涝韧性 洪涝韧性评价 黄河流域 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学] X820.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1[天文地球—地球物理学]