2023“迎峰度冬”湖北电网采暖用电与气温相关性分析  

Correlation Analysis of Hubei Power Grid Heating Electricity Consumption and Temperature During 2023“Peak Winter”

作　　者：彭利鸿 别芳玫 徐玮 李慧慧 PENG Lihong;BIE Fangmei;XU Wei;LI Huihui(State Grid Corporation of China Central China Branch,Wuhan 420100,Hubei,China;Economic and Technical Research Institute of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 420100,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]国家电网有限公司华中分部,湖北武汉430000 [2]国网湖北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,湖北武汉430000

出　　处：《电力大数据》2025年第1期40-49,共10页Power Systems and Big Data

摘　　要：以2023年湖北电网负荷数据及气象数据为基础,科学选取春秋季的工作日、节假日典型日负荷作为基准负荷,计算出2023年湖北电网“迎峰度冬”期间第一、二、三产业以及居民的采暖负荷和采暖电量,通过分析采暖负荷数据,发现第三产业和居民用电是影响采暖用电的主要因素;随后,采用相关性分析法,对不同产业采暖电量与气温之间的关系进行定量研究,并进一步使用线性回归和多项式回归方法分析各产业采暖用电对气温的敏感性,揭示了不同气温区间下采暖负荷和采暖电量的变化规律。研究结果为湖北电网制定“迎峰度冬”调度计划以及负荷预测提供了科学理论依据。Based on the load data and meteorological data of Hubei Power Grid in 2023,the loads of typical working days and holidays in spring and autumn are scientifically selected as the benchmark loads,through which the heating load and heating electricity of the primary,secondary,tertiary industries and residents during the"peak winter"of Hubei Power Grid in 2023 are calculated.Subsequently,the correlation analysis method is used to quantitatively study the relationship between heating electricity and temperature in different industries,and the sensitivity of heating electricity consumption to temperature in each industry is further analyzed by linear regression and polynomial regression methods,revealing the variation law of heating load and heating electricity under different temperature ranges.The research results provide a scientific theoretical basis for Hubei Power Grid to formulate the"peak winter"dispatch plan and load forecast.

关 键 词：气温波动 分产业负荷 采暖负荷 采暖电量 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]