从特朗普1.0到特朗普2.0:美国对华战略竞争政策透视  

From Trump 1.0 to Trump 2.0:A Perspective on U.S.Strategic Competition Policy toward China

作　　者：朱锋 凌邦皓 ZHU Feng;LING Banghao

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系学院,江苏210023 [2]南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心,江苏210023

出　　处：《国际展望》2025年第2期1-24,180,共25页Global Review

摘　　要：从特朗普第一任期到拜登政府再到特朗普第二任期,美国的对华政策在延续中演变。随着中美关系的不断演进,美国对华战略竞争政策也历经酝酿期、实施期、推进期,进入到强化期。在战略竞争的主基调之下,美国对华战略竞争策略已完成系统化构建,竞争态势也产生锚定效应,这一趋势短期内不会改变。在美国对华战略竞争政策中,科技竞争是其行动重心,从特朗普第一任期发动贸易战和科技战到拜登政府打造“民主科技联盟”、构建“小院高墙”,美国一直试图压制中国的高科技发展,从而维护其优势地位。虽然特朗普第二任期的对华政策仍会保持政策惯性,但其内外限制因素不断显现,美国两党及社会的对华态度差异日益明显,美国盟友也因战略自主、发展利益、力量对比等因素没有足够动力配合美国构建遏华联盟,加之中美相对国力差距的缩小不足以支撑美国继续推进对华战略竞争甚至所谓的“新冷战”,因此,美国难以长期维持现有的对华政策。The trajectory of U.S.-China relations,spanning the Trump administration,the Biden presidency,and a potential second term under Trump,reveals a consistent evolution within a framework of escalating adversarial competition.This competitive trajectory has progressed through four phases:inception,implementation,escalation,and current reinforcement.Centered on strategic rivalry,the United States has developed a comprehensive containment strategy that has become increasingly institutionalized,with mechanisms of competition firmly entrenched and unlikely to be reversed in the near term.Central to this strategy is technological competition,which has evolved from the“Trade War”and“Tech Decoupling”initiatives during Trump’s first term to the establishment of a“Democratic Tech Alliance”and“Small Yard,High Fence”policies under Biden.While a second Trump administration would likely retain the policy inertia of its predecessor,it would also reveal increasing contradictions.Domestically,the divergence of China policy across political parties and interest groups has created mounting constraints.Internationally,Washington faces challenges in rallying its allies to form a united anti-China coalition,as strategic autonomy,economic interests,and shifting power dynamics among its partners complicate cooperation.Furthermore,the diminishing power asymmetry between China and the United States limits the U.S.capacity to sustain a new“Cold War.”These multifaceted constraints suggest that the long-term viability of the current U.S.strategy toward China is increasingly uncertain.

关 键 词：中美关系 战略竞争 科技竞争 美国对华战略 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学]