特朗普第二任期的全球治理主张及其多重影响  

Trump’s Global Governance Propositions for His Second Term and Their Impact

作　　者：王明国 WANG Mingguo

机构地区：[1]华东政法大学政府管理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《国际展望》2025年第2期25-48,181,共25页Global Review

摘　　要：特朗普再次执政将严重阻碍全球治理体系的改革进程。特朗普在第二任期秉持“内部调整、外部收缩”的基本治理原则,鼓吹“美国优先”和“让美国再次伟大”,以排他取代包容、以强硬取代协商、以单边取代多边、以利益交换取代价值输出,在全球治理领域采取更加冒险和孤立主义的行动,其冲击波将比第一任期更大。在此背景下,全球治理体系再次面临压力测试,全球治理的复杂性和不确定性将进一步上升。特朗普政府的全球治理政策是由各种内外因素决定的,即美国国内政治向保守化、本土化转变和全球南方的群体性崛起。对于全球治理研究而言,特朗普的回归说明民粹主义不是一种暂时的现象,而是一个持续的过程,反映出美国对全球治理的整体立场出现了从所谓“规则”“责任”“合作”转换为“利益”“实力”“竞争”的演变态势,会给全球治理带来诸多重大变化。面对特朗普第二任期带来的挑战,中国需要坚持真正的多边主义,凝聚全球治理共识,深化全球治理制度改革,以团结协作的原则来推动全球治理的发展。Trump’s reelection will seriously constrain the process of reforming the global governance system.In his second term,Trump may adhere to the basic governance principles of“internal adjustment and external contraction,”advocate“America First”and“Make America Great Again,”replace inclusiveness with exclusivity,negotiation with toughness,multilateralism with unilateralism,and value output with interest exchange.He is inclined to take more risky and isolationist actions in global governance,and his shock wave will be greater than his first term.The global governance system is facing another stress test,and the complexity and uncertainty of global governance have significantly increased.Trump administration’s global governance policy is determined by more fundamental internal and external driving factors,namely,conservatism,localization transformation of domestic politics in the United States,as well as the collective rise of the global South.For global governance research,Trump’s return indicates that populism is not a temporary phenomenon but a continuous process,reflecting the overall stance of the United States on global governance shifting from so-called rules,responsibility,and cooperation to interests,strength,and competition,which will bring many significant changes to global governance.Faced with the challenges brought by Trump’s second term,China needs to adhere to true multilateralism,enhance global governance consensus,deepen global governance system reform,and strengthen global governance through unity and cooperation.

关 键 词：特朗普第二任期 全球治理 中美关系 国际制度 

分 类 号：D5[政治法律—政治学]