外空军控何以实现?——基于战略稳定性视角的分析  

How to Achieve Arms Control in Outer Space:From the Perspective of Strategic Stability

作　　者：徐能武[1] 高杨予兮 司孟韩 XU Nengwu;GAO Yangyuxi;SI Menghan

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学军政基础教育学院,长沙410073 [2]国防大学国家安全学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《国际展望》2025年第2期67-87,182,183,共23页Global Review

基　　金：2024年国家社会科学基金重点项目“外层空间国际治理趋势及对策研究”(24AGJ005)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：当前,各国对外空系统的依赖日益加深,但外空系统的固有特征使得对其的军事利用存在明显的“能力-脆弱性”悖论。美国企图利用外空系统的战略价值加快外空武器化,谋求外空绝对军事优势,以护持其全球霸权。面对外空武器化和军备竞赛的威胁,其他国家必然会利用外空系统的脆弱性特征进行非对称反制。随着外空对抗的不断升级,外空的危机稳定性不断降低,并最终危及全人类的外空利益。因此,各国最理性的选择是进行外空军备控制。从现有实践来看,基于维护战略稳定考量的外空军控应在各国加快发展和平利用外空能力的同时,切实加强国际协调,不断推进以防止外空武器化和军备竞赛为主旨的外空军控进程。Currently,countries are becoming increasingly reliant on outer space systems.However,the inherent vulnerabilities of these systems create a notable“capability-vulnerability paradox”in their military utilization.Certain countries,aiming to exploit the strategic potential of space systems,are accelerating the weaponization of outer space to pursue absolute military superiority and maintain their global hegemony.In response to the threats posed by space weaponization and arms races,other spacefaring countries will inevitably leverage the vulnerabilities of space systems to develop asymmetric countermeasures.As space confrontations escalate,crisis stability in outer space will continue to deteriorate,ultimately jeopardizing the shared interests of human beings in space.Therefore,the most rational choice for all countries lies in implementing space arms control.From the perspective of current practices,space arms control,which is based on maintaining strategic stability,should strengthen international coordination in order to advance the goal of preventing the weaponization of outer space and arms races,while countries accelerate their capabilities for the peaceful use of outer space.

关 键 词：外空军控 外空武器化 军备竞赛 非对称制衡 战略稳定性 

分 类 号：D815.1[政治法律—国际关系]