美国军备人工智能化对中美战略稳定的冲击  

The Impact of the U.S.AI Militarization on China-U.S.Strategic Stability

作　　者：丁伊 江天骄 DING Yi;JIANG Tianjiao

机构地区：[1]上海政法学院上海全球安全治理研究院,上海201701 [2]复旦大学发展研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《国际展望》2025年第2期88-109,183,184,共24页Global Review

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划课题“美国核武领域的人工智能化研究”(2023EGJ001)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在人工智能浪潮席卷全球以及中美博弈不断升级的背景下,美国大力推进军备领域的人工智能化进程,并放任其由常规武器领域向核武器领域渗透,以维持自身在全球范围内的军事优势和霸权地位。然而,此举可能对中美战略稳定构成严峻挑战。从危机稳定性方面来看,美国军备人工智能化容易诱发先发制人核打击和危机升级,从而增加中美核战争风险。从军备竞赛稳定性方面来看,美国军备人工智能化可能触发智能化军备竞赛、提升技术管控难度以及增加军备不透明,从而不利于实现世界安全和稳定。为应对这种复杂局势,一方面,中国要大力提升智能化作战能力,确保在必要时能有效捍卫国家安全;另一方面,中国应推动建立人工智能军备的全球治理框架,为国际社会提供行为规范与准则。同时,中美还应努力拓展在人工智能军备领域的合作空间,寻求共同利益与平衡点。Against the backdrop of the global wave of artificial intelligence(AI)and the escalating strategic competition between China and the United States,Washington has been aggressively advancing the integration of AI into its military arsenal,and allowed it to extend from the field of conventional weapons to the field of nuclear weapons in order to maintain its military superiority and hegemony in the world.However,this move could pose a severe challenge to China-U.S.strategic stability.From the perspective of crisis stability,AI militarization could provoke preemptive nuclear strikes and crisis escalation,thereby increasing the risk of a nuclear war between China and the United States.From the perspective of arms race stability,AI militarization could trigger an AI arms race,increase the difficulty of technical control,and increase the opacity of military capabilities,which would be detrimental to global security and stability.To address this complex situation,China must enhance its intelligence warfare capabilities to defend national security effectively when necessary.At the same time,China should promote the establishment of a global governance framework for AI military technologies and the creation of a code of conduct for the international community.Furthermore,China and the United States should work to expand the space for cooperation in AI militarization and seek common ground and a balanced approach.

关 键 词：军备 人工智能 中美战略稳定 危机稳定 军备竞赛稳定 

分 类 号：D815.1[政治法律—国际关系]