物流业全要素生产率时空演化及趋势预测——基于国家物流枢纽城市的实证  

The Spatiotemporal Evolution and Trend Prediction of Total Factor Productivity in the Logistics Industry——Empirical Study Based on National Logistics Hub Cities

作　　者：杨洁 杨成璐 詹换勤 YANG Jie;YANG Cheng-lu;ZHAN Chang-qin(School of Transportation Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,Yunnan)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《江苏商论》2025年第3期27-31,共5页Jiangsu Commercial Forum

摘　　要：为分析国家物流枢纽城市物流业全要素生产率时空演化规律及发展趋势,本文采集2011—2021年90个国家物流枢纽城市的面板数据,借助DEA-Malmquist指数测算物流枢纽城市物流业全要素生产率,同时以核密度估计探究物流业全要素生产率的时空演化特征及区域差异性,最后利用Markov链模型预测其未来演化趋势,以期为推动枢纽城市物流业高质量发展提供理论依据。In order to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution law and development trend of total factor productivity of logistics industry in national logistics hub cities,this paper collected panel data of 90 national logistics hub cities from 2011 to 2021,measured the total factor productivity of logistics industry in logistics hub cities with DEA Malmquist index,and explored the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and regional differences of total factor productivity of logistics industry with nuclear density estimation.Finally,Markov chain model was used to predict its future evolution trend,in order to provide theoretical basis for promoting high-quality development of logistics industry in hub cities.

关 键 词：全要素生产率 DEA-MALMQUIST指数 MARKOV链模型 

分 类 号：F50[经济管理—产业经济]