中国体育产业的经济贡献、社会协同与因果关系测度——基于2006—2021年时间序列数据模型  

Economic Contribution,Social Synergy and Statistical Measurement of Causality in Chinese Sports Industry--Based on the Time Series Data Model from 2006 to 2021

作　　者：高红斌 赵鑫 何胜保 GAO Hongbin;ZHAO Xin;HE Shengbao(Physical Education Department,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;School of Physical Education,Chengdu Sport University,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学体育教研部,兰州730000 [2]成都体育学院体育教育学院,成都610041

出　　处：《西安体育学院学报》2024年第6期714-726,共13页Journal of Xi'an Physical Education University

基　　金：兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(21lzujbkydx049);甘肃省基础研究计划-软科学专项青年项目(24JRZA051)。

摘　　要：体育产业作为绿色、健康、朝阳产业,已成为推动经济社会可持续发展的重要驱动力。采用文献资料法、数理统计与模型检验等研究方法,以2006—2021年体育产业、经济、社会发展、外部驱动因素指标的时间序列数据为统计测度分析依据,确定体育产业对经济发展的贡献弹性,判断体育产业与相关社会发展指标的Johansen协整关系,并得出体育产业与外部驱动指标的Granger双向因果关系。研究发现:体育产业与GDP表现为“非对称性互惠”共生关系,对人均GDP拉动效应显著,与第三产业表现为单向“非对称性”作用关系,与居民消费呈阶梯状脉冲关系图式结构;“倒逼”机制下体育产业支持没有驱动国家财政赤字与税收赤字风险;体育产业与餐饮、交通运输产业尚未形成协同效应;体育产业能够有效促进文体娱乐单位就业和社会就业,与旅游业、住宿业存在非常稳固的长期均衡关系;体育产业与第三产业固定资产投资、居民人均可支配收入、居民人均消费支出、体育系统规模等不存在Granger因果关系。建议实施加大体育产业供给侧结构性改革、增加体育产业投资、盘活体育消费市场、改善体育产业供需等举措,以推动体育产业高质量发展。As a green,healthy and sunrise industry,the sports industry is an important driving force to promote sustainable economic and social development.The time series data of sports industry,economy,social development and external driving factors from 2006 to 2021 are used as the basis for statistical measurement analysis.Research methods are adopted in the article,such as literature review,mathematical statistics,and model testing,to determine the contribution elasticity of sports industry to economic development and the Johansen co-integration relationship between sports industry and related social development indicators,and to obtain the Granger bidirectional causality between sports industry and external driving indicators.It is concluded that the sports industry has an“asymmetric reciprocal”symbiotic relationship with GDP,which has a significant impact on per capita GDP,and a unidirectional“asymmetric”relationship with the tertiary industry,and a stepped pulse relationship schema structure with resident consumption.Under the“forced back”mechanism,the sports industry support does not drive the risk of national fiscal deficit and tax deficit.The sports industry has not yet formed a synergistic effect with catering and transportation industries.However,it can effectively promote the employment of sports and entertainment units and even the social force,and has a very stable long-term balanced relationship with tourism and accommodation industry.In conclusion,there is no Granger causality between sports industry and fixed asset investment of tertiary industry,per capita disposable income of residents,per capita consumption expenditure of residents,and sports system scale.The article suggests that we increase the supply side structural reform of the sports industry,increase investment in the sports industry,revitalize the sports consumption market,improve the supply and demand of the sports industry,and promote high-quality development of the sports industry.

关 键 词：体育产业 经济贡献 社会协同 GRANGER因果关系 时间序列 计量模型 

分 类 号：G80-052[文化科学—运动人体科学]