基于时序模拟的新能源合理利用率分析  

Analysis of Reasonable Utilization Rate of New Energy Based on Time Series Simulation

作　　者：吴国栋[1,2] 包广清 WU Guodong;BAO Guangqing(College of Electrical Engineering and Information Engineering,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou,Gansu 730050,China;Gansu Electric Power Company,Lanzhou,Gansu 730030,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州理工大学电气工程与信息工程学院,甘肃兰州730050 [2]国网甘肃省电力公司,甘肃兰州730030

出　　处：《自动化应用》2025年第3期142-145,共4页Automation Application

基　　金：国网甘肃省电力公司科技研发项目“适应新能源高占比送端电网的新能源运行评价及辅助决策关键技术研究”(52272223000W)。

摘　　要：研究长时间尺度下新能源出力的月度、季节性特征,基于多年平均风光资源,利用归一化序列表征新能源出力的波动性和间歇性,再结合最新装机时序、最新气候气象预报形成的新能源理论出力序列,考虑用电负荷、电网调峰、断面约束,采用聚合法规划水火电机组开机形成的新能源消纳空间,以新能源利用率最高为目标函数进行优化计算。通过多次调整边界变化,建立电网装机规模、布局和时序与新能源电量、利用率的耦合关系,综合分析得出最合理的新能源利用率、最佳的储能配比需求。Study the monthly and seasonal characteristics of new energy output on a long-term scale,based on the average annual wind and solar resources,and use normalized sequences to characterize the volatility and intermittency of new energy output.Based on the latest installation time sequence and the latest climate and meteorological forecast,the new energy theoretical output sequence is formed.Considering the electricity load,grid peak regulation,and section constraints,the aggregation method is used to plan the new energy consumption space formed by the start-up of the hydro thermal power unit.The optimization calculation is carried out with the goal function of maximizing the utilization rate of new energy.By adjusting the boundary changes multiple times,the coupling relationship between the installed capacity scale,layout,and timing of the power grid and the new energy electricity quantity and utilization rate is established,and the most reasonable new energy utilization rate and optimal energy storage ratio demand are comprehensively analyzed.

关 键 词：场景再现 新能源 时序模拟 合理利用率 

分 类 号：TK513.5[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程]