产业结构韧性视角下重点国有林区天然林“禁伐”效应回眸  

Review of the “Logging Ban” Effects on Natural Forests in Key State-owned Forest Areas from the Perspective of Industrial Structure Resilience

作　　者：朱震锋 韩高翔 ZHU Zhenfeng;HAN Gaoxiang(School of Management,Guangdong University of Science&Technology,Dongguan 523083,China;College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]广东科技学院管理学院,东莞523083 [2]东北林业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2025年第1期9-19,27,共12页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：广东科技学院2024年度校级科研项目(GKY-2024KYZDW-9)。

摘　　要：基于重点国有林区5个森工集团2006—2022年面板数据,采用熵值法测度林区林业产业结构韧性,以此为评判指标,以2014年为时间界点,从整体均衡、内部协调、持续升级、持续转型4个维度,分别立足整体、差异化视角比较分析天然林“禁伐”前后林区及各森工集团产业结构韧性变动趋势和差异化特征。结果表明:(1)林区林业产业结构韧性整体呈现稳中有升的发展态势,具有一定波动性,表现为先增后减的倒“U”型特征;(2) 2006—2022年林区林业产业结构韧性在持续升级、整体均衡、内部协调3个维度表现一般,对林区经济转型发展助力效应有限;(3)天然林“禁伐”对林区形成了较为显著的经济断层风险,表现为产业结构调整过速(内蒙古森工集团)、经济转型增长缺乏稳定性(吉林森工集团)、不同产业发展规模及速度失衡(龙江森工集团、大兴安岭林业集团)、接续替代型经济增长乏力(长白山森工集团、内蒙古森工集团)、产业结构内部协调性不足(内蒙古森工集团);(4)天然林“禁伐”政策机遇的巨大潜力尚未得到有效释放,重点国有林区林业经济断层风险依然存在,且在一定时期内高于“禁伐”政策倒逼林区林业产业转型升级的发展机遇。⑴Background——The key state-owned forest areas occupy a key position in the national ecological security and economic development strategy.The policy of completely ban on commercial logging of natural forests is a key measure in the process of ecological civilization construction in China.Existing studies have analyzed the policy effects of“logging ban”of natural forests from various angles,but generally lack the comparative analysis of the effects before and after the implementation of the policy,and fail to fully consider the lag,long-term and systematic effects of the policy.⑵Methods——This paper firstly constructed an evaluation index system for the resilience of the forestry industry structure,which included four secondary dimensions:overall equilibrium,internal coordination,continuous upgrading and continuous transformation.Then,the entropy method was used to measure the resilience of the forestry industry structure in the key state-owned forest areas,and the resilience level of the forestry industry structure in the key state-owned forest areas in 8 years before and after the implementation of the“logging ban”policy was compared.The research data were panel data of 5 forest industry groups in the key state-owned forest areas from 2006 to 2022.⑶Results——First,from 2006 to 2022,the resilience of the forestry industry structure in the key state-owned forest areas showed a steady rise with fluctuations on the whole,showing an inverted“U”shape.There is a high consistency between continuous transformation and the change trend of the resilience of the forestry industry structure.The other three dimensions have no prominent supporting effect on the adaptation to the new positioning and transformation development of the forest areas.Second,before the implementation of the policy,the distribution center of gravity of the resilience of the forestry industry structure was unstable,and showed a single-peak dynamic distribution without polarization.After the implementation of the policy,from

关 键 词：经济断层 重点国有林区 天然林“禁伐” 产业结构韧性 生态产品价值实现 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]