中国农业农村现代化的发展水平测度与障碍因子识别  

Development Level Measurement and Obstacle Factors Identification of Agricultural and Rural Modernization in China

作　　者：王勇[1] 李明颢 WANG Yong;LI Minghao(School of Statistics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学统计学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2025年第3期14-29,共16页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“农业农村现代化的统计监测与评价研究”(22&ZD159);辽宁省自然科学基金优秀青年基金项目“基于深度强化学习的最优组合预测模型构建及应用”(2024JH3/10200048);辽宁省教育厅研究生科研创新专项“农业农村数字化转型的政策评价与进程监测研究”(DUFEYJS24003)。

摘　　要：农业农村现代化是当前社会主义现代化建设的重大任务。在这一背景下,把握农业农村现代化进度、弥补农业农村现代化短板具有重要意义。首先构建农业农村现代化评价指标体系并确定2035年目标值,在此基础上,以2011—2021年为研究区间,运用线性加权综合模型及障碍度模型,从全国、区域及省域三个层面分析中国农业农村现代化发展水平并识别主要障碍因子。研究结果表明,在发展水平方面:首先,全国农业农村现代化发展水平持续提升,农业现代化水平高于农村现代化水平,但发展速度慢于后者;其次,东部地区农业农村现代化水平始终较高,已进入转型跨越阶段,四大经济区域在各子系统层与准则层间存在发展水平与发展速度差异;最后,省域间农业农村现代化水平差距较大,11省份农业农村现代化处于发展阶段,16省份农业农村现代化进入提升阶段,江苏、天津、上海、北京四地农业农村现代化已进入转型跨越阶段。在障碍因子方面:首先,农业保险深度、农村燃气普及率、农村生活污水处理率及村庄绿地率始终是全国农业农村现代化发展的主要障碍,2021年,农产品加工业产值与农业总产值之比替代农村生活污水处理率成为阻碍全国农业农村现代化推进的最大障碍;其次,农业保险深度、村庄绿地率及农产品加工业产值与农业总产值之比是各区域农业农村现代化发展的共同主要障碍,东部地区主要障碍因子逐渐向农业现代化子系统内部转移,东北、中部及西部地区则与全国层面障碍因子情况较为一致;最后,在障碍度大于等于5%的指标中,农业保险深度、农村燃气普及率、农村居民人均生活用电量、农村生活污水处理率、村庄绿地率及农产品加工业产值与农业总产值之比六项指标对各省份农业农村现代化发展具有普遍制约作用。本文对明确农业农村现代化进�Agricultural and rural modernization represents a major task in the current socialist modernization,serving as the fundamental direction and solution to addressing the issues of agriculture,farmer,and rural area and an essential pathway toward achieving comprehensive socialist modernization.Against this backdrop,it is imperative to monitor the progress of agricultural and rural modernization and address its shortcomings.Understanding the progress and addressing the shortcomings in agricultural and rural modernization is crucial.An evaluation index system for agricultural and rural modernization is established,with target values set for 2035.Utilizing the linear weighted comprehensive model and the obstacle degree model,the development levels of agricultural and rural modernization are analyzed from national,regional,and provincial perspectives for the period 2011—2021,along with the identification of major obstacles.Findings indicate that:Firstly,regarding development levels,national agricultural and rural modernization continues to improve,with agricultural modernization surpassing rural modernization,although at a slower rate.Secondly,the eastern region maintains a high level of agricultural and rural modernization,has entered the transformation and leap-foruard stage,while significant disparities in development levels and speeds exist among the four economic regions.Thirdly,considerable gaps are evident among provinces,with 11 provinces at the developing stage and at in the enhancing stage,while Jiangsu,Tianjin,Shanghai,and Beijing have come to the transitional leap-foruard stage.In terms of obstacles,firstly,key hindrances to national agricultural and rural modernization include the depth of agricultural insurance,rural gas coverage rate,rural wastewater treatment rate,and green space rate.In 2021,the ratio of agricultural product processing value to total agricultural output replaced rural wastewater treatment rate as the primary barrier to progress.Secondly,common obstacles across regions include(the dept

关 键 词：农业农村现代化 目标值 指标体系 发展水平 障碍因子 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济]