ICT与中国经济增长:资本深化、技术渗透及其贡献  

ICT and Chinese Economic Growth:Capital Deepening,Technology Penetration and Contributions

作　　者：丁志帆 丁胜 DING Zhifan;DING Sheng(School of Economics,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China;School of Economics,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学经济学院,福建福州350007 [2]河南大学经济学院,河南开封475004

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2025年第3期30-41,共12页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国信息消费的统计测试及其经济效应研究”(17BTJ008);全国统计科学研究重大项目“新质生产力视域下中等技术陷阱的统计识别与跨越路径研究”(2024LD003)。

摘　　要：随着数字化转型加速,ICT投资与应用不断增加,ICT资本成为经济高质量发展和新质生产力培育的重要推动力量。根据投入产出表和永续盘存法测算了1995-2018年间中国ICT资本投入,并基于劳动力性别、年龄和受教育程度的三维交叉分类矩阵,采用Tornqvist指数测算1995-2018年中国实际劳动投入;在此基础上,根据增长核算框架和两部门模型考察1996-2018年间投入要素和TFP增长对中国经济增长的动态贡献。研究发现:第一,1996-2018年间,ICT资本解释了超过5%的中国经济增长,是中国经济增长的重要驱动力;第二,1996-2018年间,ICT硬件资本服务和ICT软件资本服务平均增速分别为18.68%和21.58%,ICT软件在推动经济增长中作用越来越重要;第三,ICT部门不仅能够直接促进经济增长,其TFP变动对经济总体的TFP变动具有较强的带动作用,能够解释14.48%的TFP增长;第四,ICT部门发展能够通过技术渗透和溢出效应推动非ICT部门TFP提升。在新发展阶段应当持续推动软硬件协同发展,打造具有国际竞争力的数字产业集群,着力提升ICT技术与产业创新能力;同时,完善支撑ICT技术扩散与渗透应用的组织和制度环境,加快推动ICT部门与非ICT部门的深度融合,实现从研发到应用的产业链深层次互动与协作,以充分挖掘ICT资本的增长动力与结构红利。With the acceleration of digital transformation at the enterprise and industry levels,the ICT investment and application are increasing,ICT capital has become an important supporting force for the high-quality development of Chinese economy and the cultivation of new productivity.Based on the input-output table and the perpetual inventory method,the ICT capital input is calculated based on the three-dimensional cross-classification of gender,age structure and education level of the Chinese labor force,and the T rnqvist index is uesed to measure the actual labor input from 1996 to 2018,and then the dynamic contribution of various input factors to Chinese economic growth is examined according to the growth accounting framework and the two-sector model.The results show that:Firstly,since 1995,the growth rate of investment in ICT capital has been as high as 21.58%;ICT capital has become an important driver of Chinese economic growth,which can explain more than 5%of Chinese economic growth,however,it is still not the main engine of economic growth.Secondly,because the growth rate of ICT software capital services is significantly higher than that of ICT hardware capital services,its contribution to economic growth over time is basically the same as that of ICT hardware capital.The contribution of labor input to economic growth has declined,and the demographic dividend urgently needs to be transformed into a talent dividend.Thirdly,The ICT production sector has high growth potential,which can directly drive the overall TFP growth of the economy.The ICT sector can not only directly promote economic growth,but also have a strong driving effect on the overall TFP change of the economy,which can explain the 14.48%of TFP growth.Fourthly,although there is a lag in the impact of the ICT sector on the non-ICT sector,its technology spillover and radiation effects should not be underestimated.Therefore,in the new stage of development,government should continue to promote the coordinated development of software and hardware,build

关 键 词：索洛悖论 ICT资本 劳动投入 经济增长核算 两部门模型 投入产出表 Tornqvist指数 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]