潜在增长曲线模型在二语习得研究中的应用  

Application of Latent Growth Curve Modeling in Second Language Acquisition Research

作　　者：周世瑶 Zhou Shi-yao(School of International Studies,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China)

机构地区：[1]海南大学外国语学院,海口570228

出　　处：《外语学刊》2025年第2期11-18,共8页Foreign Language Research

基　　金：海南省教育科学规划一般课题“复杂动态系统理论视阈下大学英语课堂学习投入发展模式研究”(QJY202412006)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：传统的二语习得研究多采用重复性(协)方差分析(repeated measure ANOVA/ANCOVA)等方法来分析重复测量的数据,进行差异性检验。然而该方法局限性明显,仅从群体层面探究学习者的发展变化,无法考察个体的变异性、比较个体与群体变化轨迹所存在的差异性。鉴于此,本文基于复杂动态系统理论,介绍一种更为先进的纵向数据分析方法:潜在增长曲线模型,该方法在考察群体变化趋势的同时关注个体发展,并探究影响发展轨迹变化和差异的因素。本文以学生课堂怠学(disengagement)的实证数据为例,使用R语言进行统计建模,展示如何使用该模型进行纵向数据分析,通过添加时变协变量探究影响个体内部课堂怠学变化的因素,通过添加时不变协变量解释群体变化中的个体差异。最后本文简要探讨了近年来该方法在二语习得研究中的应用。Traditional second language acquisition(SLA)research often employs methods such as repeated measure ANOVA/ANCOVA to analyze repeated measurement data and conduct tests of differences.However,these methods have clear limitations as they explore learner development changes only at the group level,failing to examine individual variability or the differences between individual and group developmental trajectories.In light of this,this paper introduces a more advanced longitudinal data analysis method based on Complex Dynamic Systems Theory:Latent Growth Curve Modeling(LGCM).This method not only focuses on the trends of group changes but also pays attention to individual development and explores the factors influencing the trajectories of development and their differences.Using empirical data on student disengagement in the classroom as an example,and employing R programming for statistical modeling,this paper demonstrates how to use this model for longitudinal data analysis.It investigates the factors influencing intra-individual changes in classroom disengagement by adding time-varying covariates and explains inter-individual differences in group differences by incorporating time invariant covariates.Finally,the paper briefly discusses the recent applications of this method in second language acquisition research.

关 键 词：复杂动态系统理论 潜在增长曲线模型 个体变化 群体差异 纵向数据分析 课堂怠学 

分 类 号：H319[语言文字—英语]