油田员工糖尿病归因负担估计与危险因素控制效果模拟  

Estimating the Burden of Diabetes Attributable to the Working Population and Simulating the Effects of Risk Factor Control

作　　者：崔怡然 贺思敏 王琪[1] 邓智豪 杨桂艳 颜艳[1] Cui Yiran;He Simin;Wang Qi(Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,Xiangya School of Public Health,Central South University,Changsha 410078)

机构地区：[1]中南大学湘雅公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,410078

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2025年第1期62-66,共5页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

摘　　要：目的本研究测算了糖尿病员工归因于吸烟、饮酒和肥胖的伤残负担,是油田企业员工较为全面的主要慢性病归因负担测算,能为其危险因素防控提供科学依据。方法采用伤残损失寿命年(years lived with disability,YLD)作为员工糖尿病的负担指标。基于比较风险评估框架中的反事实归因法,估计了油田员工糖尿病与不同行为方式的危险因素的人群归因分值(population attribution fraction,PAF),利用危险因素暴露率及其与相关疾病关联强度(relative risk,RR)计算归因危险度,进而计算了YLD的归因。采用比例改变模型预测2030年油田员工在不同危险因素防控场景下慢性病的YLD率,计算危险因素防控可避免的糖尿病的YLD。结果根据比例风险评估框架计算的人群归因分值可得男性员工由于吸烟、饮酒和肥胖导致糖尿病的归因分值均高于女性,女性在老年人群中归因负担较高,而男性在中青年时期归因负担较高。就男性而言,如果实现吸烟、饮酒和肥胖防控目标2030年的糖尿病YLD率较自然趋势分别下降17.53%、3.52%和56.20%。女性实现吸烟、饮酒和肥胖目标后的YLD率分别下降1.18%、1.32%和26.47%。糖尿病男性和女性员工均在肥胖防控假设达成后YLD率降幅最大。结论油田企业可以通过对员工健康危险因素和疾病负担的研究,制定和实施有针对性的健康管理计划,加强对员工健康的保障,提高员工的工作效率和生产力。Objective This study estimated the disability burden of diabetes attributable to smoking,alcohol consumption,and obesity among oilemployees.It provides a comprehensive assessment of the major chronic disease burden attributable to these factors,offering a scientific basis for risk factor prevention and control.Methods Years lived with disability(YLD)was used as the burden indicator for diabetes among oilemployees.Based on the counterfactual attribution method within the comparative risk assessment framework,the population attributable fraction(PAF)for diabetes due to different behavioral risk factors was estimated.The attributable risk was calculated using the exposure rates of risk factors and their relative risk(RR)associated with related diseases,which was then used to compute the attributable YLD.A proportional change model was used to predict the YLD rates of chronic diseases among oilfield employees in 2030 under different risk factor control scenarios,calculating the YLD that could be avoided through risk factor control.Results According to the PAF calculated using the proportional risk assessment framework,the attributable burden of diabetes due to smoking,alcohol consumption,and obesity was higher in male employees than in females,with older females having a higher attributable burden,while middle-aged and young males had a higher burden.For males,achieving control targets for smoking,alcohol consumption,and obesity by 2030 would result in a decrease in diabetes YLD rates by 17.53%,3.52%,and 56.20%,respectively,compared to natural trends.For females,achieving these targets would decrease YLD rates by 1.18%,1.32%,and 26.47%,respectively.The largest decrease in YLD rates for both male and female employees occurred under the obesity control scenario.Conclusion By studying health risk factors and disease burdens among employees,oil companies can develop and implement targeted health management plans,enhancing employee health protection and improving work efficiency and productivity.

关 键 词：糖尿病 劳动力人群 归因负担 危险因素 

分 类 号：R18[医药卫生—流行病学]