基于贝叶斯网络-序贯蒙特卡罗法的分布式电网配电稳定性研究  

Research on Distribution Stability of Distributed Grid Based on Bayesian Network and Sequential Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：金青峰 JIN Qingfeng(School of Intelligent Manufacturing,Huainan Union University,Huainan Anhui 232038,China)

机构地区：[1]淮南联合大学智能制造学院,安徽淮南232038

出　　处：《萍乡学院学报》2024年第6期76-81,共6页Journal of Pingxiang University

基　　金：安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目“考虑风电并网的电力系统小干扰稳定性研究”(KJ2020A0898)。

摘　　要：为提高分布式电网的配电稳定性,文章提出了一种融合贝叶斯网络及序贯蒙特卡罗法的分布式电网稳定性优化途径。通过分层管理策略对配电网加以改进,同时对配电网故障率进行建模,实现分布式配电网的可靠性评估,并针对不同的维护策略,提前预知反馈,实现对配电网的精确以及动态预测。实验结果表明,贝叶斯网络-序贯蒙特卡罗法分布式配电网的平均停机率降低了1.6043%,平均停机时间缩短了4.0706 h,可靠性评分提高了39.5537分。同时,在微网离线的紧急情况下,分层管理策略能分配动态功率来满足用电需求。文章所提供的分析框架有助于识别电网中的潜在风险,所模拟出的多种故障场景为运维决策提供科学参考,还可促进可再生能源在现有能源体系中的应用,推动电网系统的现代化改革以及可持续发展目标的实现。To improve the distribution stability of distributed power grids,this article proposes a distributed power grid stability optimization approach that integrates Bayesian networks and sequential Monte Carlo methods.By implementing a hierarchical management strategy to improve the distribution network and modeling the failure rate of the distribution network,the reliability assessment of the distributed distribution network can be achieved.Different maintenance strategies can be anticipated and feedback can be provided in advance to achieve accurate and dynamic prediction of the distribution network.The experimental results show that the average downtime of the Bayesian network sequential Monte Carlo method distributed distribution network has been reduced by 1.6043%,the average downtime has been shortened by 4.0706 hours,and the reliability score has been improved by 39.5537 points.At the same time,in emergency situations where microgrids are offline,hierarchical management strategies can meet electricity demand through dynamic power allocation.The provided analysis framework helps identify potential risks in the power grid,and the simulated multiple fault scenarios provide scientific references for operation and maintenance decisions,further promoting the application of renewable energy in the existing energy system,advancing the modernization reform of the power grid system,and achieving sustainable development goals.

关 键 词：分布式电网 微网 贝叶斯网络 序贯蒙特卡罗法 配电稳定性 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]