Reconstruction of drought at the desert margin in northern China over the past 279 years using tree-ring widths  

作　　者：Yuxin Liu Heli Zhang Feng Chen Martín Hadad Fidel Roig Xiaoen Zhao Shijie Wang Weipeng Yue Youping Chen 

机构地区：[1]Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security,Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security,Yunnan University,Kunming,650504,People’s Republic of China [2]Southwest United Graduate School,Kunming,650504,People’s Republic of China [3]Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree-Ring Ecology,Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Ürümqi,830002,People’s Republic of China [4]Laboratorio de Dendrocronología de ZonasÁridas CIGEOBIO(CONICET-UNSJ),Gabinete de Geología Ambiental(INGEO-UNSJ),5400,San Juan,Argentina [5]Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental,IANIGLA-CCT CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo,5500,Mendoza,Argentina [6]Hémera Centro de Observación de La Tierra,Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal,Facultad de Ciencias,Universidad Mayor,5750,Huechuraba,Santiago,Chile

出　　处：《Journal of Forestry Research》2025年第1期333-346,共14页林业研究(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32061123008).

摘　　要：Unstable environments intensify the frequency of extreme disasters.Long-term climate changes can lead to agricultural and ecological degradation that threatens population sustainability.To better understand past climatic events and consequences,here we present a reconstruction of the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index(scPDSI)from September to August for the desert margins of northern China,dating back to 1742.The reconstruction accounts for 42.9%of the variation of meteorological data between 1951 and 2020.Our spatial correlation analyses showed significant correlations between scPDSI,runoff,and precipitation.Over the past 279 years,the study area has undergone nine dry and eight wet periods,with the most severe climate extremes between the 1850s and 1890s.This period of prolonged drought in northeastern China coincided with the combined impacts of climatic factors and human influences,contributing to the fall of the Qing Dynasty.Analysis of periodicity and anomalies in sea surface temperatures indicate a strong association between wet and dry cycles and El Niño-Southern Oscillations.Our findings offer insights into long-term dry and wet fluctuations at the desert margins in northern China and elucidate the relationship between drought and the dynamics of civilizations.They also highlight the potential impact of extremes in climate on modern society,especially under the four projected shared socioeconomic pathways climatic scenarios,which predict worsening droughts in northern China.

关 键 词：Tree rings DROUGHT ENSO Agricultural disasters Desert edge 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学] P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]