耦合协调视角下中国能源经济指数演变与预测  

The Evolution of China’s Energy Economic Index from the Perspective of Coupling Coordination

作　　者：唐葆君[1,2,3,4] 王崇州 许沛昀 吴郧 邹颖 TANG Baojun;WANG Chongzhou;XU Peiyun;WU Yun;ZOU Ying(Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Beijing Laboratory for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Joint International Research Laboratory of Carbon Neutrality System and Engineering Management(MoE of China),Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学碳中和系统工程北京实验室,北京100081 [3]北京理工大学能源经济与环境管理北京市重点实验室,北京100081 [4]北京理工大学碳中和系统与工程管理国际合作联合实验室(教育部),北京100081

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期1-6,共6页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72488101,72293600,71934004);国家社会科学基金重点项目(23AZD065)。

摘　　要：在宏观经济新常态下,能源行业作为国民经济关键支柱,面临重大转型挑战与机遇。基于CEEP中国能源经济指数测度方法,结合耦合协调度模型,考察能源行业在宏观经济、政策支持、行业供需、行业高质量、股票指数和财务绩效六大维度的协调程度及其对能源经济的促进作用。同时,分析内外部不确定性因素及其影响机制,运用情景预测方法,系统评估和预测能源行业经济发展趋势。研究表明,能源经济在宏观经济调整期发挥了稳定作用,在经济下行和外部冲击时,其发展协调度有效支持了宏观经济稳定发展。风电、光伏行业各维度协调发展显著促进了经济高效增长;传统化石能源行业面临发展瓶颈,亟需技术突破和政策支持;生物质能与水力发电行业因政策支持和协调度提升形成较强发展潜力。研究结果助力政策制定者把握行业发展态势,为投资者和能源企业制定科学合理的发展策略提供依据。Against the backdrop of macroeconomic development entering a new normal,in order to better respond to the challenges and opportunities of the energy sector’s transformation,this paper constructed the China Energy Economic Index and analyzed the impact of internal and external influencing factors on energy economic development.By combining the coupling coordination degree model,this study examined the coordination level of various dimensions within the energy industry and their role in promoting energy economic growth.The results show that energy economics plays a crucial stabilizing role during macroeconomic adjustments,especially in the face of economic downturns and external shocks,with energy economic coordination effectively supporting macroeconomic stability.Additionally,coordinated development among energy sub-sectors significantly promotes the efficient growth of wind and solar power industries,while the traditional fossil energy sector faces development bottlenecks and relies on technological breakthroughs and policy support.The biomass energy and hydropower sectors,under the influence of policy support and improved coordination,show strong development potential.This research provides theoretical and practical guidance for policymakers,investors,and energy enterprises to address the challenges and opportunities in the process of energy economic transformation.

关 键 词：能源经济指数 耦合协调度 碳减排 能源转型 风光发电 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]