全球和中国碳市场回顾与展望(2025)  

Review and Outlook of Global and China’s Carbon Markets(2025)

作　　者：王科[1,2,3,4,5] 吕晨 WANG Ke;LÜChen(Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;School of Management,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of National Security and Development Studies,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Beijing Laboratory for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学管理学院,北京100081 [3]北京理工大学国家安全与发展研究院,北京100081 [4]北京理工大学能源经济与环境管理北京市重点实验室,北京100081 [5]北京理工大学碳中和系统工程北京实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期19-36,共18页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23ZDA107)。

摘　　要：碳排放权交易是利用市场机制减少温室气体排放的政策工具。碳排放权交易在推动企业降碳、促进绿色技术创新、提高资源配置效率等方面发挥着日益重要的作用。中国自2021年启动全国碳市场,截至2024年12月31日,全国碳市场配额累计成交6.3亿吨,成交额超430亿元,碳市场已成为中国落实“双碳”战略目标的主要政策工具。系统回顾2024年全球和中国碳市场发展运行情况,根据官方监测数据与研究文献系统分析不同碳市场的直接减排效果和协同减排效益。结果显示,基于总量控制的碳市场有效降低了区域内温室气体排放总量,而基于强度管理的碳市场在不约束企业发展的情况下起到降低碳排放强度的作用。在降低温室气体排放的同时,实施碳交易也具有降低大气污染物排放的协同效益。预计未来全球碳市场总量机制持续完善,强度模式迅速发展,全球合作持续深化,监管透明不断强化。建议全国碳市场进一步明确发展路径,采取增强政策预期、完善配额机制、强化减排约束等方式提升市场的有效性。Carbon emissions trading is a policy tool that uses market mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.Carbon trading plays an increasingly important role in driving corporate decarbonization,fostering green technology innovation,and improving resource allocation efficiency.Since the launch of China’s national carbon market in 2021,by December 31,2024,the total volume of allowances traded had reached 630 million tons,with a transaction value exceeding 43 billion RMB.The carbon market has become a key policy tool for China to implement its“dual carbon”strategy.This study systematically reviewed the development and operation of global and China’s carbon markets in 2024,analyzing the direct GHG emission reduction effects and co-benefits of air pollutants emission reductions based on official monitoring data and research literature.The results show that carbon markets based on a cap-and-trade system effectively reduce total GHG emissions within a region,while intensity-based carbon markets on targets lower carbon intensity without restricting corporate development.In addition to reducing GHG emissions,the implementation of carbon trading also generates synergistic benefits by reducing air pollutant emissions.It is expected that the global carbon market’s cap-and-trade mechanism will continue to improve,intensity-based mechanism will develop rapidly,global cooperation will deepen,and regulatory transparency will be continuously strengthened.It is recommended that China’s national carbon market clarify its development path and enhance market effectiveness by strengthening policy expectations,refining the allowance mechanism,and reinforcing emission reduction constraints.

关 键 词：全国碳市场 试点碳市场 配额成交价 减排成效 

分 类 号：F416[经济管理—产业经济]