河南省宁陵县酥梨始花期预报方法研究  

Study on the Forecast Method of Crisp Pears in Ningling County,Henan Province

作　　者：陈永清 CHEN Yongqing(Shangqiu Meteorological Bureau of Henan Province,Shangqiu 476000,China)

机构地区：[1]商丘市气象局,河南商丘476000

出　　处：《乡村科技》2025年第3期98-102,共5页Rural Science and Technology

摘　　要：根据河南省宁陵县1996—2017年酥梨物候观测资料和气象资料,分析气温、降水和日照等气象因子对酥梨始花期的影响,分别采用积温物候预报法和逐步回归法2种方法对酥梨始花期进行预报。结果表明,芽萌动后日平均气温≥0℃、积温在210.0℃·d左右时,梨树开花;利用积温物候预报法对2018和2019年数据进行预报检验,误差为1~2 d,预报结果与观测值较吻合;通过相关分析,筛选出对酥梨始花期影响较大的气象因子,建立始花期预报模型,模型的R2为0.761,拟合效果较好,酥梨始花期预报值与观测值基本吻合。Based on the phenological observation data and meteorological data of pear in Ningling County,Henan Province from 1996 to 2017,this study analyzed the effects of meteorological factors such as temperature,precipitation and sunshine on the initial flowering period of pears.Two methods,namely the accumulated temperature phenological prediction method and the stepwise regression,were employed to predict the initial flowering period of pear.The results showed that when the active accumulated temperature after bud germination was about 210.0℃·d and the daily average temperature≥0℃,pear trees began to flower.The prediction results of the accumulated temperature phenological prediction method for the 2018 and 2019 datasets were verified,with an error of 1 to 2 days,and the prediction results were in good agreement with the observed values.Through correlation analysis,the meteorological factors that had a greater impact on the initial flowering period of pear were screened out,and a prediction model for the initial flowering period was established.The R2 of model was 0.761,indicating a good fitting effect.The predicted values of the initial flowering period of pear were basically consistent with the observed values.

关 键 词：宁陵酥梨 始花期 气象因子 积温 预报模型 

分 类 号：S661.2[农业科学—果树学] S661.2[农业科学—园艺学]