数字经济拉动投资规模测算及投资重点领域研究  

A Study on the Measurement of the Scale of Investment Driven by the Digital Economy and the Focus of Investment

作　　者：赵惠 刘明 李嘉 Zhao Hui;Liu Ming;Li Jia

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院投资研究所 [2]国家信息中心经济预测部

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2025年第1期72-82,共11页Macroeconomics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“确定性投资——基于全球房地产市场的理论和经验研究”(23FJYB043);国家社科基金“RCEP框架下中国重点产业链东亚重构研究”(22BGJ035)的资助。

摘　　要：当前,中国需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力依然存在,加之外部环境复杂多变,对加快推动数字经济发展提出了新的更高要求。本文设计了一个动态投入产出模型,测算数字经济对中国未来投资拉动空间。经测算,在数字经济情景下,2025-2035年全社会固定投资总额累计1012.2万亿元,相比基准情景累计增加61.9万亿元。其中,资本深化和劳动生产率提升、中间品节约、资本转换效率提升分别累计增加投资13.0万亿元、25.2万亿元、23.7万亿元。数字经济通过资本深化、劳动生产率提升、中间品节约和资本转换效率提升,对于拉动投资、培育发展新质生产力、提升产业链供应链韧性具有重要的支撑作用。建议构建基本完备的数字经济制度框架,积极布局数字经济建设重点领域,优化资源配置激发市场活力,统筹推动中国数字经济做强做优做大。At present,the triple pressure of China's demand contraction,supply shock and weakening expectations still exist,coupled with the complex and volatile external environment,which puts forward new and higher requirements for accel-erating the development of digital economy.In this article,a dynamic input-output model is designed to measure the future investment pulling space of the digital economy in China.It is estimated that under the digital economy scenario,the total fixed investment of the whole society will accumulate 1012.2 trillion yuan from 2025 to 2035,which is a cumulative increase of 61.9 trillion yuan compared with the baseline scenario.Among them,capital deepening and labor productivity improvement,intermediate goods saving,and capital conversion efficiency improvement will increase investment by 13.0 trillion yuan,25.2 trillion yuan,and 23.7 trillion yuan,respectively.The digital economy through capital deepening,labor productivity im-provement,intermediate goods saving and capital conversion efficiency improvement has an important supporting role in boosting investment,cultivating and developing new quality productivity,and en-hancing the resilience of the industrial chain supply chain.It is recommended to build a basically complete institutional framework for the digital economy,actively layout the key areas of digital economy construction,optimize resource allocation to stimulate market vitality,and comprehensively promote China's digital economy to become stronger,better and bigger.

关 键 词：数字经济 投资规模 投资重点 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]