气候政策调整与全球经常账户失衡演进  

Climate Policy Adjustment and the Evolution of Global Current Account Imbalances

作　　者：刘瑶 张明[2] Liu Yao;Zhang Ming(National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Institute of Finance&Banking,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]中国社会科学院金融研究所

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2025年第1期22-32,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“双向金融开放视角下提升中国企业融资效率研究”(72403246);中国社会科学院“青启计划”(2024QQJH116);中国社会科学院创新工程项目“以金融高质量开放,推动金融强国建设”资助。

摘　　要：2008年国际金融危机爆发后,各国经常账户失衡在改善后再次出现显著分化,呈现出更多国家、地区间的非对称性。在中长期,气候政策调整将影响投入要素的可替代性与生产要素的流动性,驱动资金从化石能源依赖行业向低碳行业转移,改变国内投资行为,使储蓄-投资缺口发生变动,从而影响一国国际收支状况。通过梳理气候政策调整与全球失衡演进的特征事实,本文发现:第一,主要失衡国碳排放密度与经常账户走向密切相关;第二,单边征收碳税将导致区域内失衡路径分化;第三,绿色补贴政策对全球经常账户失衡演进的影响较为有限。此外,本文发现危机后各国失衡路径分化与各国气候政策调整的非同步性有关。同地区或同类型的经济体应采取协调一致的政策安排应对气候转型,减轻气候政策频繁调整对外部失衡的外溢效应。Since the global financial crisis of 2018,the current account imbalances experienced by various countries have shown significant divergence following an initial improvement,with increased asymmetry between countries and regions.In the medium and long term,climate policy adjustments will affect the substitutability and mobility of input factors,drive the transfer of funds from fossil fuel-dependent industries to low-carbon sectors,influence domestic investment behavior,alter savings-investment gap,and,ultimately,affect a country's external imbalance.Given this,this paper will examine the important impact of climate policy adjustments on the evolution of global current account imbalances.By categorizing climate policies into demand-side policies(such as carbon emission reduction and carbon tax)and supply-side policies(such as green subsidies),this paper will primarily address the following questions:the theoretical framework explaining how climate mitigation policies affect global current account imbalances;the asymmetric effect of various climate policy adjustments on the evolution of global current account imbalances in reality;and how non-synchronous climate policies contribute to divergent current account paths among countries.Understanding these issues will provide insights into the direction of global imbalances and inform proactive policy responses.By analyzing the stylized facts of climate policy adjustment and global imbalance evolution,this paper finds that:firstly,carbon emission intensity is closely related to current account trends in major imbalance countries.Secondly,unilateral carbon tax would lead to intra-regional differentiation in imbalance paths.Thirdly,green subsidy policies have a limited effect on the restructuring of global imbalances.Meanwhile,the paper finds that post-crisis path differentiation in imbalances is closely related to the non-synchronicity of climate policy adjustments.The key policy suggestion of this paper is that all regions or countries with similar characteristics should

关 键 词：经常账户失衡 气候政策 碳排放密度 国际资本流动 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]