基于概率强度偏好的冲突分析图模型方法  

Probabilistic-strength preference based method in the graphmodel for conflict resolution

作　　者：董艺博 葛冰峰 黄宇铭 侯泽强 丁广东 刘子义 DONG Yibo;GE Bingfeng;HUANG Yuming;HOU Zeqiang;DING Guangdong;LIU Ziyi(College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China;Unit 31022 of the PLA,Beijing 100096,China)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学系统工程学院,湖南长沙410073 [2]中国人民解放军31022部队,北京100096

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2025年第2期478-485,共8页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71971213,72071206);湖南省研究生科研创新重点项目(CX20210003)资助课题。

摘　　要：针对现实复杂冲突中决策者策略选择偏好不确定性和强度并存的情形,融合概率偏好与强度偏好两种表示方式的优势,提出了基于概率强度偏好的冲突分析图模型(graph model for conflict resolution, GMCR)方法。首先,概述了经典GMCR方法的基本概念和流程;其次,提出了概率强度偏好结构,以综合表征决策者的偏好情况;在此基础上,重点定义了8种稳定性类型以揭示复杂博弈行为的内在逻辑规则;最后,示例研究了各方策略选择偏好和见招拆招的策略交互过程,验证了以所提方法解决多方冲突的可行性与有效性。In response to the coexistence of uncertainty and strength in preferences of decision makers in complex conflicts in reality,combined with the advantages of two expression methods of probabilistic preference and strength preference,the graph model for conflict resolution(GMCR)method based on probabilistic-strength preference is proposed.Firsty,the basic concept and process of classical GMCR method are reviewed.Then,a probabilistic-strength preference structure is introduced to comprehensively characterize the preferences of decision makers.After that,eight stability definitions are redefined to reveal the logical rules inherent in complex game behaviors.Finally,the method is applied to study the choice preferences and strategy interactions in each party’s strategies,which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method in solving conflicts involving multiple parties.

关 键 词：冲突分析图模型 概率偏好 强度偏好 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]