基于Nomogram模型指导人工种植牙病人术后感染风险预测工具的设计  

Design of a tool to predict the risk of postoperative infection in patients with dental implants based on the Nomogram model

作　　者：陶雪 冯霏燕 纪迎迎 朱虹 张轶文 唐裴裴 TAO Xue;FENG Feiyan;JI Yingying;ZHU Hong;ZHANG Yiwen;TANG Peipei(Affiliated Stomatological Hospital of Nanjing Medical University,Jiangsu 210000 China)

机构地区：[1]南京医科大学附属口腔医院,江苏210000

出　　处：《循证护理》2025年第5期842-848,共7页Chinese Evidence-Based Nursing

摘　　要：目的:基于Nomogram模型构建人工种植牙病人术后感染风险预测工具,并验证其预测价值。方法:选取2022年1月—2024年1月南京医科大学附属口腔医院特诊科收治的150例人工种植牙病人为调查对象,采用一般资料调查表收集资料,根据术后是否发生感染分为发生组和未发生组,比较两组临床资料,将具有统计学意义的指标纳入Logistic回归分析,明确独立影响因素,采用R软件设计Nomogram模型的风险预测图,并验证其预测性能。结果:150例病人中,25例病人发生术后感染,感染率为16.67%;Logistic回归分析结果显示,吸烟及饮酒史、合并症、术中是否使用抗生素、每日刷牙频率、术前教育是人工种植牙术后感染的独立影响因素;模型的受试者操作特征曲线下面积为0.782[95%CI(0.725,0.832)],灵敏度为0.834,特异度为0.746,临界值为0.329,C-index为0.741,预测准确率为83.33%。结论:本研究基于Nomogram模型构建的人工种植牙病人术后感染风险预测图能为临床实践提供一套科学、直观、有效的风险评估工具,有助于提高术后感染的预防护理管理质量。Objective:To construct a tool to predict the risk of postoperative infection in patients with dental implants based on the Nomogram model,and to verify its predictive value.Methods:A total of 150 patients with dental implants admitted to the Special Clinic Department of the Affiliated Stomatological Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2022 to January 2024 were selected as the survey subjects.The general data questionnaire was used to collect data.The patients were divided into the occurrence group and the control group according to whether they had postoperative infection.The clinical data of the two groups were compared.And the indicators with statistical significance were included in the Logistic regression analysis to clarify the independent influencing factors.The risk prediction chart of the Nomogram model was designed using R software.And its predictive performance was verified.Results:Among the 150 patients,25 patients developed postoperative infection,with an infection rate of 16.67%.Logistic regression analysis showed that smoking and drinking history,comorbidities,use of antibiotics during surgery,brushing frequency,and preoperative education were independent influencing factors for postoperative infection of dental implants.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.782(95%CI 0.725-0.832).The sensitivity was 0.834.The specificity was 0.746.Tthe critical value probability was 0.329.The C-index was 0.741.And the prediction accuracy was 83.33%.Conclusions:In this study,the constructed risk prediction chart for postoperative infection of patients with dental implants based on the Nomogram model provides a set of scientific,intuitive,and effective risk assessment tool for clinical practice.Which is helpful to improve the quality of preventive nursing management of postoperative infection.

关 键 词：Nomogram模型 人工种植牙 术后感染 风险预测工具 

分 类 号：R473.78[医药卫生—护理学]