基于“源-汇”理论的洪涝灾害风险转移效应研究——以长三角地区为例  

Flood risk transfer effects based on the“source-sink”theory:A case study of the Yangtze River Delta,China

作　　者：朱治州 张书亮[1,2] 金恒旭 高雨 ZHU Zhizhou;ZHANG Shuliang;JIN Hengxu;GAO Yu(School of Geography and Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment for the Ministry of Education Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院、南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,南京210023 [2]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京210023

出　　处：《地理研究》2025年第2期499-514,共16页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271483、42071364)。

摘　　要：全球气候变化加剧,导致极端天气事件频发,洪涝灾害已成为最主要的自然灾害,对人类及生态环境构成了严重威胁。本文针对洪涝灾害风险转移问题,基于“源-汇”理论构建洪涝风险转移模型,以长三角地区为例,探究洪涝灾害风险时空演变规律,挖掘洪涝风险转移前后特征及其对生态与经济影响程度。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年长三角地区的洪涝风险整体呈现上升趋势,其中极高风险区域增长最为明显;整体空间分布格局为“东高西低、中高南低”,极高风险区域主要环绕在太湖以及长江沿岸附近,并随着时间变化逐渐向其周边蔓延。(2)在洪涝风险转移后,整体风险程度下降约3.70%,中心区域的风险得到有效缓解,风险等级的变化主要受到土地利用类型和地形结构的影响;转移前后风险的空间方向均呈现“南北上升凸型”和“东西U型”曲线分布的趋势。(3)经过风险转移,长三角地区的生态和经济均呈现弱恢复趋势,其中生态环境受影响模式分布呈现“低-高”和“高-低”的模式;社会经济受影响模式主要为“高-低”模式,分布于太湖周边和安徽中部地区,生态和经济可恢复力均较强的地区零散分布于南京市附近。洪涝风险转移效应研究结果可为长三角地区经济-资源-生态环境系统协同治理提供理论指导。In recent decades,the intensification of global climate change has led to frequent extreme weather events.Flooding has become the most important source of natural disasters,and its rapid spread will have a serious impact on human life,property and ecological environment.Aiming at the flood disaster risk transfer problem,this paper constructs a flood risk transfer model based on the“source-sink”theory,takes the Yangtze River Delta as an example,explores the spatio-temporal evolution law of flood disaster risk,and examines the characteristics before and after flood risk transfer and its impact on ecology and economy.The results showed that:(1)Flood risk presents a gradual rising trend from 2000 to 2020,and the growth of the extremely high-risk area was the most obvious,and its spatial distribution pattern was“high in the east,low in the west,high in the middle and low in the south”.The extremely high-risk areas were mainly around the Taihu Lake and the Yangtze River,and gradually spread to the surrounding areas during the study period.(2)After the transfer of disasters,there was an overall reduction in flood risk levels by approximately 3.70%,and the risk in central regions experience effective alleviation of flood risk.The change of risk grade was mainly affected by land use type and topographic structure.The spatial direction of flood risk before and after the transfer showed a trend of“north-south rising convex”and“east-west U-shaped”curve distribution.(3)Following flood risk transfer,ecology and economy of the Yangtze River Delta showed a weak recovery trend,and the distribution of the affected ecological environment showed a“low-high”and“high-low”mode.Society-and economy-affected mode is mainly“high-low”mode,which was distributed around the Taihu Lake and central Anhui province,and the areas with strong ecological and economic resilience were scattered in the vicinity of Nanjing.The research results of flood risk transfer effects could provide theoretical guidance for the coordinate

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 风险评估 “源-汇”理论 风险转移 生态与经济 长三角地区 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]