京津冀城市群县域城市韧性与创新效率耦合协调时空演变及影响因素的空间异质性  

The coupling of urban resilience and innovation efficiency for coordinated spatio-temporal evolution and spatial heterogeneity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

作　　者：刘海龙 安芷萱[1] 王焕珂 张鹏航 王改艳 王哲 LIU Hailong;AN Zhixuan;WANG Huanke;ZHANG Penghang;WANG Gaiyan;WANG Zhe(School of Geographic Sciences,Shanxi Normal University,Taiyuan 030031,China;Institute of Human Geography,Shanxi Normal University,Taiyuan 030031,China)

机构地区：[1]山西师范大学地理科学学院,太原030031 [2]山西师范大学人文地理研究所,太原030031

出　　处：《地理研究》2025年第2期577-602,共26页Geographical Research

基　　金：山西省哲学社会科学规划课题(2022YY061);山西师范大学研究生创新项目(2023XSY052)。

摘　　要：以京津冀城市群县域为研究区,根据城市韧性与创新效率内涵构建综合评价指标体系测度2000—2021年城市韧性与创新效率发展水平,结合空间自相关和重心模型揭示城市韧性与创新效率耦合协调时空演变特征,运用地理探测器和时空地理加权回归探测主要影响因子并揭示其空间异质性。结果表明:(1)2000—2021年京津冀城市群城市韧性综合水平偏低,但总体呈稳定上升趋势,空间上呈现出以京津为核心的梯度扩散趋势。(2)科技创新效率呈“N”型波动特征,空间上表现出先收缩后扩张的态势。(3)城市韧性与创新效率耦合协调水平整体呈逐渐上升态势,空间上表现为由内向外递减的“圈层式”分布格局,重心迁移路径整体呈“东南偏移,西北折返”的变化格局,耦合协调空间正相关性与局域空间集聚特征显著。(4)城市韧性与创新效率耦合协调时空演变是以经济发展和社会基础因素驱动为主,自然环境、文化水平等因素共同作用的结果,自然和社会经济因素对研究区耦合协调时空演变影响空间异质性显著。Taking the counties in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as the study area,this paper first constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system based on the connotation of urban resilience and innovation efficiency to measure the development level of urban resilience and innovation efficiency from 2000 to 2021.Then,combining spatial autocorrelation and center of gravity models,we examine the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of urban resilience and innovation efficiency coupling coordination,and use geodetectors and spatio-temporal geographically-weighted regression to detect the main influencing factors and reveal their spatial heterogeneity.Results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2021,the comprehensive level of urban resilience is low in the study area,but the overall trend is stable and rising,and the spatial gradient diffusion trend is generally displayed with Beijing and Tianjin as the core.(2)The efficiency of scientific and technological innovation has an“Nshaped”fluctuation,which shows the trend of first contraction and then expansion in space.(3)The coupling coordination level of urban resilience and innovation efficiency showed a gradual upward trend as a whole,and the spatial pattern presented a“circle pattern”of inward and outward decline.The migration path of the center of gravity showed a change pattern of“southeast shift,northwest return”,and the positive correlation of coupling coordination space and local spatial agglomeration were significant.(4)The spatio-temporal evolution of the coupling coordination between urban resilience and innovation efficiency is mainly driven by economic development and social basic factors,which is the result of the joint action of natural environment and cultural level.The impact of natural and socio-economic factors on the coupling coordination in the study area shows obvious spatial heterogeneity.

关 键 词：城市韧性 创新效率 时空地理加权回归 京津冀城市群 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] F124.3[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] TU984.116