未来产业成长路径与范式探讨  

Growth Paths and Paradigms of Future Industries

作　　者：芮明杰[1] RUI Mingjie(School of Management,Fudan University,Shanghai 200082)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院,上海200082

出　　处：《经济纵横》2025年第1期1-8,F0002,共9页Economic Review Journal

摘　　要：未来产业是未来相当长时间内可能形成的新型产业。鉴于未来科学技术飞跃、全球产业结构重塑及国际市场竞争态势的不确定性,未来产业的成长路径与范式势必有别于以往及当前的产业形态。因此,在规划布局未来产业时,深入探索并开拓促进未来产业健康发展的新路径与新范式,使之真正成为引领我国经济高质量发展与现代化产业体系构建的前导力量,具有重要的战略价值。影响未来产业成长路径与范式的六大核心要素为未来的消费需求趋势、技术进步前景、生态环境保护要求、新型全球一体化趋势、产业主体变革及人才资源储备,这些要素共同构成了影响未来产业健康发展的内外动因。在此基础上,提出“交互融合、协同创新”的未来产业成长新路径,以及“创新性的生产方式、革命性的生产组织模式”的未来产业成长新范式。助力未来产业成长新路径新范式的形成,需要构建先进的智能数字基础设施,为产业变革提供坚实的支撑;设计未来产业政策支持体系,以政策引导促进产业健康发展;打造全球创新合作平台与网络,加速技术创新与成果转化。Future industries refer to a new type of industries that may be formed in the long future.Given the future scientific and technological leaps,global industrial restructuring,and uncertainty of international market competition,the growth paths and paradigms of future industries will differ from those of the past and current industrial forms.Therefore,in the planning of future industries,it is of great strategic significance to deeply explore the new paths and paradigms to promote the healthy development of future industries,which are expected to become a leading force in the high-quality development of China's economy and the building of a modern industrial system.The six core factors influencing the growth paths and paradigms of future industries are future consumer demand trends,technological progress prospects,eco-environment protection requirements,new global integration trends,industrial subject changes,and talent resource reserves.These factors together constitute the internal and external driving forces for the healthy development of future industries.On this basis,this paper proposes interactive integration and collaborative innovation as a new growth path for future industries,and innovative modes and revolutionary organization models of production as a new paradigm.To facilitate the formation of new growth paths and paradigms for future industries,it is necessary to build advanced intelligent digital infrastructures to provide solid support for industrial transformation,design a policy support system to promote healthy development of future industries through policy guidance,and build a platform and network for global innovation and cooperation to accelerate technological innovation and achievement transformation.

关 键 词：未来产业 产业变革 成长新路径 新范式 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]