黑沙河泥石流滩地系统敏感性和景观脆弱性时空演变特征  

Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Systemic Sensitivity and Landscape Vulnerability in the Debris Flow Waste-Shoal Land of the Heisha River

作　　者：裴曾莉 何松膛 王道杰[1] 林勇明[3] 杨鸿飞 赵鹏[1,2] 杨雨睛 PEI Zengli;HE Songtang;WANG Daojie;LIN Yongming;YANG Hongfei;ZHAO Peng;YANG Yujing(State Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610299,Sichuan,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;College of JunCao Science and Ecology,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所/山地自然灾害与工程安全全国重点实验室,四川成都610299 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]福建农林大学菌草与生态学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《武汉大学学报(理学版)》2025年第1期62-72,共11页Journal of Wuhan University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(42201094);中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2023389);四川省科技计划项目(2022NSFSC1070);中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所科研项目(IMHE-ZDRW-08)。

摘　　要：系统敏感性和景观脆弱性评价,对区域管理及可持续发展具有重要意义。以四川省凉山彝族自治州的黑沙河泥石流滩地系统为研究对象,基于2014、2018、2022年的历史影像数据,分析了2014、2018、2022年土地利用类型变化特征;考虑社会-生态因素,结合层次分析法、熵权法、地理探测器、空间自相关等方法评价了系统敏感性与景观脆弱性时空分布的关系及其驱动因素。结果表明:研究区土地利用类型以耕地和林地为主,总体呈现耕地减少、林地和建设用地增多的变化趋势;系统敏感性随时间增加呈下降趋势,在空间上呈西部低、东部高的分布规律,具有高高聚集和低低聚集的空间正相关性;年平均降雨、海拔、年平均气温和距断裂带距离是系统敏感性的主要驱动因素,自然因素和人为因素的交互作用加剧了系统敏感性的变化。此外景观脆弱性随时间呈先升后降趋势,空间分布呈现西部高、东部低的特征,与系统敏感性空间分布呈现不匹配关系。该研究结果有助于优化防灾减灾布局和区域发展策略。The evaluation of systemic sensitivity and landscape vulnerability holds significant implications for regional management and sustainable development.Taking the Heisha River waste-shoal land system in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Sichuan Province,as the research object,this research analyzed the characteristics of land-use change of 2014,2018,2022 based on historical remote sensing data.Considering socio-ecological factors,the relationship between the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of systemic sensitivity and landscape vulnerability and its driving factors were evaluated by analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method, Geodetector, spatial autocorrelation and other methods. The results showed that, the land use types of thestudy area were mainly cultivated land and forest land, and the overall trend showed a decrease in cultivated land and an increase inforest land and construction land. Systemic sensitivity showed a decreasing trend over time and a spatial pattern of being lower inthe west and higher in the east, exhibiting a spatial positive correlation of high-high clustering and low-low clustering. Geographicaldetector analysis revealed that annual average rainfall, elevation, annual average temperature, and distance from fault zones arethe main driving factors of Systemic sensitivity, with the interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors exacerbating the changesin systemic sensitivity.Furthermore, landscape vulnerability showed an increasing trend followed by a decrease over time, with aspatial distribution characteristic of being higher in the west and lower in the east, which is mismatched with the spatial distributionof systemic sensitivity. The findings of this study can aid in optimizing disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and regionaldevelopment policies.

关 键 词：泥石流滩地 土地利用 系统敏感性 景观脆弱性 时空分布 

分 类 号：P94[天文地球—自然地理学]