气候变化及耕地破碎背景下云南省滇重楼潜在适生区研究  

Study on the Potential Suitable Area of Paris Polyphylla Var.Yunnanensis in Yunnan Province under the Background of Climate Change and Cultivated Land Fragmentation

作　　者：周京春 李益平 李桐 衣浡菲 王金亮[1,2] 冯战勇 ZHOU Jingchun;LI Yiping;LI Tong;YI Bofei;WANG Jinliang;FENG Zhanyong(Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650050,Yunnan,China;Southwest United Graduate School,Kunming 650092,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学地理学部,云南昆明650050 [2]西南联合研究生院,云南昆明650092

出　　处：《武汉大学学报(理学版)》2025年第1期117-133,共17页Journal of Wuhan University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：云南省重大科技专项计划(云南省西南联合研究生院科技专项-基础研究和应用基础研究重大项目)(202302AO370003)。

摘　　要：通过收集滇重楼在云南省分布点,综合19个影响因子,运用6个物种分布模型(GAM、GLM、GBM、RF、SVM、Max‐Ent)对云南省滇重楼潜在适生区进行预测,选取预测精度最高的RF作为预测模型,基于预测结果探索滇重楼在云南省生长分布的主要影响因子;为进一步挖掘最具种植潜力区域,结合潜在适生区内各县耕地破碎度,筛选出最适宜种植的区域;考虑未来气候变化的影响,研究2021―2040年、2041―2060年、2061―2080年不同气候情景SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5及SSP5-8.5下潜在适生区的时空演变。结果表明:滇重楼在云南省的总适生区面积为9.703万km2,共覆盖67个县,主要位于云南省西北部及中东部区域;考虑耕地综合破碎度对滇重楼产业化布局的影响,筛选出适生区内耕地斑块集中且最适宜种植的县共12个;气候变化下云南省滇重楼潜在适生区面积收缩整体向东部迁移,其质心向东南部移动。By collecting the distribution points of Paris polyphylla var.yunnanensis in Yunnan Province and integrating 19 influencing factors,six species distribution models(GAM,GLM,GBM,RF,SVM,and MaxEnt)were used to predict the potential suitable habitats for Paris polyphylla var.yunnanensis in Yunnan Province.The RF model,which had the highest prediction accuracy,was selected as the predictive model.Based on the prediction results,the primary factors affecting the growth and distribution of Paris polyphylla var.yunnanensis in Yunnan Province were explored.To further identify the areas with the highest planting potential,the cropland fragmentation in suitable habitats across different counties was considered to select the most suitable planting areas.In consideration of future climate change,the spatiotemporal evolution of suitable habitats under different climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)for the periods 2021―2040,2041―2060,and 2061―2080 was studied.The results show that the total suitable habitat area for Paris polyphylla var.yunnanensis in Yunnan Province is 97030 km²,primarily located in the northwestern and central-eastern regions.The suitable habitat covers 67 counties in total.Considering the impact of cropland frag⁃mentation on the industrial cultivation of Paris polyphylla var.yunnanensis,12 counties were identified as having the most suitable cropland for planting.Under climate change conditions,the suitable habitat area for Paris polyphylla var.yunnanensis in Yunnan Province is expected to shrink and shift eastward,with the habitat’s centroid moving toward the southeast.

关 键 词：气候变化 耕地 破碎度 滇重楼 适生区 

分 类 号：Q948.1[生物学—植物学]