径流变化下的溪洛渡梯级-三峡梯级水库群适应性调控  

Adaptive Regulation of the Xiluodu Cascade and Three Gorges Cascade Reservoirs System under Runoff Change

作　　者：舒卫民[1] 杨卫星 严方家 张艳[1] 张宇 SHU Weimin;YANG Weixing;YAN Fangjia;ZHANG Yan;ZHANG Yu(China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd,Yichang 443000,Hubei,China;Nantong Jiuweigang Water Conservancy Project Management Office,Nantong 226000,Jiangsu,China;Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Wuhan 430010,Hubei,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江电力股份有限公司,湖北宜昌443000 [2]南通市九圩港水利工程管理所,江苏南通226000 [3]水利部长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 [4]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《武汉大学学报(理学版)》2025年第1期134-142,共9页Journal of Wuhan University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52209032);中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目(Z24302034,Z242302027)。

摘　　要：受气候变化与人类活动影响,我国主要江河径流发生了显著变化,开展应对径流变化的水库群适应性调控策略研究具有重要意义。构建了面向适应性调控模拟的溪洛渡梯级-三峡梯级水库群多目标联合调度模型,设计了基于调度方式优化、洪水资源利用、用水行为调整等适应性调控措施的组合方案集,通过仿真模拟分析了调控机理,评估了不同方案的适应性调控效果。结果表明:1)由于径流减少,常规调度模式下溪洛渡梯级-三峡梯级水库群发电总量减少35.78亿k W·h,而采用水库群联合调度,梯级水电站群能够增发6.25亿k W·h;2)三峡汛期限制水位提高至153 m时,可有效缓解河川径流减少对梯级水库群总体效益带来的负面作用;3)将三峡水库汛期限制水位提高至150 m,同时上游将节水20%,梯级水库群发电总量能够超过基准时期常规调度。利用上述非工程措施能有效消减河川径流变化对水电系统影响。Due to the impacts of climate change and human activities,the runoff of major rivers in China has undergone significant changes.Study on adaptive regulation strategies for reservoir groups in response to these variations in runoff is of great importance.A multi-objective joint scheduling model for the Xiluodu cascade and Three Gorges cascade reservoirs system was developed to facilitate adaptive regulation simulations.Additionally,a set of combined schemes was designed based on optimization of scheduling modes,utilization of flood resources,and adjustment of water-use behaviors.Through simulation analysis,the regulation mechanisms were examined,and the adaptive regulation effects of different schemes were assessed.The results indicate that:1)due to reduced runoff,the total power generation of the Xiluodu cascade and Three Gorges cascade reservoirs under conventional scheduling decreased by 3.578 billion kW·h.By adopting joint scheduling of the reservoir groups,the cascade hydropower stations were able to increase generation by 625 million kW·h.2)When the restricted water level during flood period of the Three Gorges Reservoir was raised to 153 m,the negative impacts of decreased river runoff on the overall benefits of the cascade reservoir groups were effectively mitigated.3)Addi⁃tionally,raising the restricted water level during flood period of the Three Gorges Reservoir to 150 m,along with upstream water conservation of 20%,allowed the total power generation of the cascade reservoirs to exceed that of the conventional scheduling during the baseline period.Utilizing non-engineering measures to increase the utilization of flood resources,adjusting upstream water-use behaviors,and optimizing the scheduling operation of the hydropower system are effective regulatory measures to mitigate the impacts of river runoff changes on the hydropower system.

关 键 词：水库群 适应性调控 径流变化 多目标优化 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学]