饮用水中消毒副产物健康风险及预测模型  

Health Risk and Predictive Model of Disinfection By-products in Drinking Water

作　　者：朱海燕 苏广宁[2] 谭志科[1] 黄迪舜 ZHU Hai-yan;SU Guang-ning;TAN Zhi-ke;HUANG Di-shun(Guangzhou Baiyun Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 510445,China;Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 511430,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市白云区疾病预防控制中心,广东广州510445 [2]广东省疾病预防控制中心,广东广州511430

出　　处：《中国给水排水》2025年第3期65-71,共7页China Water & Wastewater

基　　金：广州市白云区医疗卫生科技计划项目(2020-YL-019)。

摘　　要：对以广州市流溪河为水源的供水系统中9种亚硝胺(NAs)以及三氯甲烷(TCM)和四氯化碳(TTCM)共11种消毒副产物(DBPs)进行污染调查,对多途径暴露于DBPs的健康风险及以伤残调整生命年(DALYs)为量化指标的疾病负担进行蒙特卡洛模拟,以常规水质指标为自变量建立DBPs浓度的多元线性回归(MLR)预测模型。结果表明,主要检出N-亚硝基二甲胺(NDMA)、N-亚硝基二乙胺(NDEA)和TCM三种DBPs,TCM和总亚硝胺浓度均值分别为19.59μg/L、5.54 ng/L。居民暴露于DBPs的总致癌风险中值为6.92×10-6,所致肝癌人均DALYs损失中值为1.05×10-6人/a,高于世界卫生组织(WHO)参考限值(10-6人/a),占2019年全球疾病负担(GBD)研究中我国肝癌人均DALYs损失的0.03%,DALYs损失主要由饮水暴露产生,45~64岁人群个体健康损失风险最高。MLR预测模型显示,以管网水中DBPs作为水质参数的函数,R2值为0.817。为降低供水系统中的DBPs风险,需重点监管流溪河沿岸生活源、养殖场及皮革加工等排废现象。The pollution of 11 disinfection by-products(DBPs),including 9 nitrosamines(NAs),trichloromethane(TCM)and tetrachloromethane(TTCM),in the water supply system with Liuxi River as the water source in Guangzhou was investigated.Monte Carlo simulation was carried out for the health risks of multi-pathway exposure to DBPs and the burden of disease quantified by disability-adjusted life years(DALYs).A multiple linear regression(MLR)model for DBPs concentration prediction was established using conventional water quality indicators as the independent variable.Three DBPs,namely N-nitrosodimethylamine(NDMA),N-nitrosodiethylamine(NDEA),and TCM,were mainly detected.The average concentrations of TCM and total nitrosamine were 19.59μg/L and 5.54 ng/L respectively.The median total cancer risk for residents exposed to DBPs was 6.92×10^(-6),and the median per capita DALYs loss attributed to liver cancer was 1.05×10^(-6) persons/a,which exceeded the reference limit set by the World Health Organization(WHO)(10^(-6) persons/a).In the 2019 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study,the per capita DALYs loss of liver cancer in China accounted for 0.03%,and DALYs loss was mainly caused by exposure to drinking water,with the highest risk of individual health loss being among people aged 45-64.The MLR prediction model had the R^(2) value of 0.817 with DBPs in pipe network water as a function of water quality parameters.To mitigate the risk of DBPs in the water supply system,it is essential to focus on monitoring the wastewater discharged from domestic sources,livestock farms,and leather processing facilities along the Liuxi River.

关 键 词：饮用水 消毒副产物 健康风险 伤残调整生命年 

分 类 号：TU991[建筑科学—市政工程]